$TDTH is printing a 65% gain after the CEO converted $8M of debt into restricted Class B equity. Retail sees '8 million dollars' and 'strengthening balance sheet' and hits buy. Let's look at the historical data. Across 2,881 similar catalyst-driven gap-ups of 30% or more, the stock closes green only 34% of the time. The median intraday return is -6.79%. Debt conversions swap leverage for future dilution; they do not create customer demand. History says chasing this gap has a 65% failure rate. Close the laptop and journal the session before your emotions write a check your account can't cash.
$REE -20.68% — what the base rate says
What the data showed
- $REE -20.68% mcap $12M · float 181M shares
- $FXHO -20.26%
- $LHSW -16.77% mcap $11M · float 19M shares
- $ZCMD -14.73% mcap $6M · float 12M shares
- $FBGL -13.75% mcap $8M · float 4M shares
- $SBEV -12.78% mcap $2M · float 11M shares · sector: BEVERAGES
- $CELU -11.25% mcap $18M · float 9M shares · sector: PHARMACEUTICAL PREPARATIONS
- $ALNY -11.17% mcap $41.8B · float 133M shares · sector: PHARMACEUTICAL PREPARATIONS
- $INLF -11.13% mcap $60M · float 6M shares
- $CPHI -10.43% mcap $29M · float 40M shares · sector: PHARMACEUTICAL PREPARATIONS
Don't let narrative hype override historical base rates. Run the numbers on FILTRIX.net to see how often these after-hours block-conversions actually hold their gains when the morning bell rings. Discipline > FOMO
Find Your Edge on FILTRIX →