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$STKH -23.61% — what the base rate says

$STKH -23.61% — what the base rate says

Let's talk about the absolute mathematical futility of chasing after-hours ghost runs.

Autonomix Medical ($AMIX) surged 46.55% with a grand total of zero news. It is a $2M micro-cap with an 11M float. Our database has tracked 2,411 instances of these no-news, low-float gap-ups of 30% or more.

The historical verdict is brutal: setups like this close down to red 70% of the time, carrying a median intraday loss of over 10%. Contrast that with Rocky Brands ($RCKY), up 16.78% on actual, tangible Q2 earnings. Even then, historical earnings gap-ups of this size still fade to red 52% of the time.

Close the charts, let the chasers absorb the slippage, and update your journal.

What the data showed

  • $STKH -23.61% Steakholder Foods Ltd. · closed red 59% · green 40% (n=1,421) mcap $2M · float 2M shares
  • $DFNS -16.13% T3 Defense Inc. · closed red 55% · green 44% (n=3,606) mcap $4M · float 58M shares · sector: SERVICES-MANAGEMENT CONSULTING SERVICES
  • $KNRX -16.12% Knorex Ltd. · closed red 56% · green 43% (n=2,301) mcap $30M · float 18M shares
  • $NPCE -15.87% NeuroPace, Inc. · closed red 53% · green 46% (n=323) mcap $505M · float 11M shares · sector: SURGICAL & MEDICAL INSTRUMENTS & APPARATUS
  • $OI -15.01% O-I Glass, Inc. · closed red 53% · green 46% (n=323) mcap $1.4B · float 150M shares · sector: GLASS CONTAINERS
  • $CSGP -14.47% CoStar Group, Inc. · closed red 54% · green 45% (n=618) mcap $11.3B · float 415M shares · sector: SERVICES-BUSINESS SERVICES, NEC
  • $CAR -12.81% Avis Budget Group, Inc. · closed red 53% · green 46% (n=6,903) mcap $5.6B · float 17M shares · sector: SERVICES-AUTO RENTAL & LEASING (NO DRIVERS)
  • $CNET -12.77% ZW Data Action Technologies Inc. · closed red 54% · green 45% (n=4,138) mcap $3M · float 3M shares · sector: SERVICES-COMPUTER PROGRAMMING, DATA PROCESSING, ETC.
  • $CSAI -12.15% Cloudastructure Inc. · closed red 53% · green 46% (n=6,903) mcap $6M · float 24M shares · sector: SERVICES-COMPUTER PROGRAMMING, DATA PROCESSING, ETC.
  • $LOGI -11.84% Logitech International S.A. · closed red 54% · green 45% (n=618) mcap $15.2B · float 144M shares · sector: COMPUTER PERIPHERAL EQUIPMENT, NEC

Before you chase another after-hours headline, run the stats. Pull the historical sample on FILTRIX.net to see the true probability of the gap holding. Discipline > FOMO

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