Edible Garden ($EDBL) pops 23.01% on a "Letter of Intent." In retail-speak, that sounds like a milestone. In historical data, it’s a warning.
Zooming out, when this specific ticker gaps up 5% or more, it has historically closed red 66% of the time across 35 tracked sessions, losing a median of 7.26% from open to close.
When you look at the broader setup—over 4,800 catalyst-driven gaps of 20% or more—the market-wide green rate is just 37%.
A letter of intent is not a contract, and a midday spike is not a structural uptrend. Step away from the desk and go grab lunch.