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$EOG -24.23% — what the base rate says

$EOG -24.23% — what the base rate says

Friday's close left $ADVB sitting on a 39% gain on zero news.

With a microscopic 580,000-share float, it is the ultimate honeypot for chasers looking for a weekend runner.

But the base rate is unforgiving: out of 2,411 historical instances of no-news gap-ups over 30% on low-float micro-caps, the stock closes red 70% of the time over the next two days. We are calling the fade on this one—we will grade it on Monday.

What the data showed

  • $EOG -24.23% EOG Resources, Inc. · closed red 56% · green 43% (n=2,153) mcap $73.5B · float 534M shares · sector: CRUDE PETROLEUM & NATURAL GAS
  • $TGHL -19.23% The Growhub Limited · closed red 56% · green 43% (n=2,301) mcap $9M · float 13M shares
  • $VBIO -17.78% Valion Bio, Inc. · closed red 56% · green 43% (n=2,301) float 3M shares
  • $AMP -15.04% Ameriprise Financial, Inc. · closed red 55% · green 44% (n=3,606) mcap $46.6B · float 97M shares · sector: INVESTMENT ADVICE
  • $DCOM -13.19% Dime Commercial Bancshares, Inc. · closed red 54% · green 45% (n=4,138)
  • $GLXG -12.38% Galaxy Payroll Group Limited · closed red 54% · green 45% (n=4,138) mcap $6M · float 1M shares
  • $RYDE -11.50% Ryde Group Ltd · closed red 53% · green 46% (n=6,903) mcap $168M · float 73M shares
  • $JILL -9.63% J.Jill, Inc. mcap $237M · float 5M shares · sector: WOMEN'S, MISSES', AND JUNIORS OUTERWEAR
  • $BANL -9.40% CBL International Limited mcap $13M · float 6M shares
  • $HPAI -8.58% Helport AI Limited mcap $48M · float 9M shares

Before you chase these massive unexplained Friday gaps, run the historical odds on FILTRIX.net to see how often mega-cap no-news moves mean-revert. Discipline > FOMO

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