The Thursday evening tape is handing out hard lessons. $HOWL rips +85.7% into the post-close session on zero news, drawing retail straight into the glow. Across 2,881 historical instances of no-news gap-ups over 30%, the base rate is brutal: the setup closes red 65% of the time with a median intraday fade of -6.8%.
Flip side: real numbers hit the tape and reality sets in. $FLUX drops -19.5% following its fiscal Q4 earnings release, while $OSIS slides -13.1% on its own report despite tossing an expanded buyback into the PR.
Are you chasing ghost volume after the bell, or waiting for proven base rates?