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$FCUV -51.35% — what the base rate says

$FCUV -51.35% — what the base rate says

Arbe Robotics ($ARBE) is ripping 28.3% pre-market after announcing selection by a global automotive group for Level 3 autonomous programs across multiple brands.

It sounds like the dream headline for momentum longs. But here is the historical record for $ARBE:

In 19 prior sessions where this stock gapped up 5% or more, it closed red 74% of the time, handing long entries a win rate of just 26% and a median intraday drop of -3.54%.

Across the broader market, catalyst gap-ups above 20% fade to red 62% of the time over 5,520 historical setups.

The press release is glossy. The base rate is hostile.

What the data showed

  • $FCUV -51.35% Focus Universal Inc. · closed red 62% · green 37% (n=746) mcap $12M · float 600,000 shares · sector: INDUSTRIAL INSTRUMENTS FOR MEASUREMENT, DISPLAY, AND CONTROL
  • $SNYR -33.66% Synergy CHC Corp. · closed red 59% · green 40% (n=971) mcap $2M · float 9M shares · sector: MEDICINAL CHEMICALS & BOTANICAL PRODUCTS
  • $BIAF -31.96% bioAffinity Technologies, Inc. · closed red 62% · green 37% (n=746) mcap $9M · float 9M shares · sector: SERVICES-COMMERCIAL PHYSICAL & BIOLOGICAL RESEARCH
  • $DYN -28.17% Dyne Therapeutics, Inc. · closed red 56% · green 43% (n=2,435) mcap $4.5B · float 150M shares · sector: PHARMACEUTICAL PREPARATIONS
  • $LEXX -22.26% Lexaria Bioscience Corp. · closed red 56% · green 43% (n=2,435) mcap $23M · float 24M shares · sector: PHARMACEUTICAL PREPARATIONS
  • $OPTT -20.86% Ocean Power Technologies, Inc. · closed red 56% · green 43% (n=2,435) mcap $51M · float 267M shares · sector: ELECTRIC SERVICES
  • $TRBG -20.30% TurboGen Ltd. · closed red 58% · green 41% (n=1,702) mcap $172M
  • $LASE -20.00% Laser Photonics Corporation · closed red 56% · green 43% (n=2,435) mcap $70M · float 45M shares · sector: MISCELLANEOUS ELECTRICAL MACHINERY, EQUIPMENT & SUPPLIES
  • $NWGL -18.90% CL Workshop Group Limited · closed red 55% · green 44% (n=2,786) mcap $15M · float 5M shares
  • $ONCO -17.46% Onconetix, Inc. · closed red 55% · green 44% (n=2,786) mcap $4M · float 4M shares · sector: PHARMACEUTICAL PREPARATIONS

Run the historical odds on FILTRIX.net before chasing early morning gap-ups into heavy resistance. Know the base rate before you take the risk. Discipline > FOMO

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