Arbe Robotics ($ARBE) is ripping 28.3% pre-market after announcing selection by a global automotive group for Level 3 autonomous programs across multiple brands.
It sounds like the dream headline for momentum longs. But here is the historical record for $ARBE:
In 19 prior sessions where this stock gapped up 5% or more, it closed red 74% of the time, handing long entries a win rate of just 26% and a median intraday drop of -3.54%.
Across the broader market, catalyst gap-ups above 20% fade to red 62% of the time over 5,520 historical setups.
The press release is glossy. The base rate is hostile.