Monday morning brings the usual pre-bell euphoria: $RDHL surges 98.19% after divesting its Talicia asset to Apotex for $18 million in upfront cash. Retail treats an asset sale like an infinite growth engine, but the math tells a sober story. Across 2,881 historical catalyst-driven gap-ups of 30% or more, the base rate closes red 65% of the time with a median intraday return of -6.79%.
On the other side of the tape, unexplained flushes are hitting $JUNS (-26.32%) and utility heavyweight $PCG (-18.43%).
Chasing the open without a verified base rate is just donating liquidity to the desk.