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$RITR -56.55% — what the base rate says

$RITR -56.55% — what the base rate says

Tuesday pre-bell is serving up a classic masterclass in retail delusions. Today's main event is $TNMG, a tiny $2M market cap company ripping over 105% because they attached 'AI-Powered Organizational Design' to a press release. On the other side of the tape, actual $1.5B mid-cap AdaptHealth ($AHCO) is getting absolutely vaporized, down 38% after reporting earnings in its SEC 8-K.

While chasers fight over a micro-cap's buzzword PDF, our database shows that across 2,881 similar catalyst-driven gap-ups, the setup closes red 65% of the time. The base rate says the air comes out of this $TNMG pump by the closing bell. We'll track it here to see if the 65% red close rate holds true today.

What the data showed

  • $RITR -56.55% Reitar Logtech Holdings Limited · closed red 52% · green 47% (n=58) mcap $31M · float 2M shares
  • $AHCO -38.97% AdaptHealth Corp. · closed red 52% · green 47% (n=58) mcap $1.5B · float 86M shares · sector: SERVICES-HOME HEALTH CARE SERVICES
  • $INHD -35.14% Inno Holdings Inc. · closed red 62% · green 37% (n=641) mcap $81M · float 2M shares · sector: STEEL PIPE & TUBES
  • $NXTT -27.81% Next Technology Holding Inc. · closed red 56% · green 43% (n=2,153) mcap $37M · float 148M shares · sector: SERVICES-COMPUTER PROCESSING & DATA PREPARATION
  • $REZI -26.30% Resideo Technologies, Inc. · closed red 56% · green 43% (n=2,153) mcap $5.2B · float 131M shares · sector: WHOLESALE-HARDWARE
  • $CERT -23.96% Certara, Inc. · closed red 54% · green 45% (n=178) mcap $1.3B · float 105M shares · sector: SERVICES-PREPACKAGED SOFTWARE
  • $WETO -21.11% Wetour Robotics Limited · closed red 56% · green 43% (n=2,153) mcap $41M · float 66M shares
  • $SMTK -20.29% SmartKem, Inc. · closed red 56% · green 43% (n=2,153) mcap $5M · float 19M shares · sector: SEMICONDUCTORS & RELATED DEVICES
  • $HYFM -20.00% Hydrofarm Holdings Group, Inc. · closed red 56% · green 43% (n=2,153) mcap $3M · float 37M shares · sector: WHOLESALE-MISCELLANEOUS NONDURABLE GOODS
  • $SUGP -19.93% SU Group Holdings Limited · closed red 56% · green 43% (n=2,301) mcap $6M · float 4M shares

Before you chase the next low-float AI press release, pull the historical sample on FILTRIX.net to see the real win rates. Don't let FOMO write your trading plan. Discipline > FOMO

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