FILTRIX Logo FILTRIX Find Your Edge →
← All insights

$CDT -31.63% — what the base rate says

$CDT -31.63% — what the base rate says

Shoe Station Group ($SHOE) takes a 21.04% pre-market haircut after chopping its full-year earnings guidance nearly in half. When reality hits the balance sheet, the order book offers no quarter.

On the other side of the tape, Tenon Medical ($TNON) surges 70.08% before the bell after announcing an early repayment of convertible notes on a tiny 610,000-share float. Chasers see free money, but historical probability tells a different story. Across 3,283 catalyst-driven gap-ups of 30% or more, stocks close in the red 66% of the time with a median intraday fade of -7.23%.

66% close red. That's the baseline before you press market buy.

What the data showed

  • $CDT -31.63% CDT Equity Inc. · closed red 59% · green 40% (n=971) mcap $8M · float 790,000 shares · sector: PHARMACEUTICAL PREPARATIONS
  • $MGN -24.18% Megan Holdings Limited · closed red 56% · green 43% (n=2,435) mcap $5M · float 22M shares
  • $SHOE -21.04% Shoe Station Group Inc. · closed red 52% · green 47% (n=206) mcap $363M · sector: RETAIL-SHOE STORES
  • $CLIK -19.97% Click Holdings Limited · closed red 55% · green 44% (n=2,786) mcap $7M · float 7M shares
  • $UZX -19.79% Linkage Global Inc · closed red 51% · green 48% (n=379) mcap $8M · float 58M shares
  • $OLB -18.18% The OLB Group, Inc. · closed red 55% · green 44% (n=2,786) mcap $7M · float 19M shares · sector: SERVICES-BUSINESS SERVICES, NEC
  • $COO -17.82% The Cooper Companies, Inc. · closed red 51% · green 48% (n=379) mcap $13.2B · float 194M shares · sector: OPHTHALMIC GOODS
  • $NAVN -16.76% Navan, Inc. · closed red 54% · green 45% (n=4,108) mcap $6.8B · float 93M shares · sector: SERVICES-PREPACKAGED SOFTWARE
  • $YMAT -16.74% J-Star Holding Co., Ltd. · closed red 55% · green 44% (n=2,786) mcap $14M · float 2M shares
  • $RWT -15.96% Redwood Trust, Inc. · closed red 54% · green 45% (n=4,108) mcap $554M · float 125M shares · sector: REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUSTS

Before buying into a 70% pre-market pop on debt restructuring, inspect the historical edge on FILTRIX.net. Base rates reveal the fade long before the bell rings. Discipline > FOMO.

Find Your Edge on FILTRIX →