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$CCHH -32.82% — what the base rate says

$CCHH -32.82% — what the base rate says

$VRAX is up 246.86% in the pre-market. The catalyst is a supply agreement. The reality is a $1M market cap and a massive 19M share float.

When we run the numbers on similar catalyst-driven gaps of 30% or more, the results are remarkably consistent. In 2,881 historical cases, these setups closed green just 34% of the time, posting a median intraday return of -6.79%.

In our previous update, we called out $LUCY and $EDBL before they faded to close down 37% and 12% respectively on their call day. The math does not care about chatroom hype.

History says this gap fades to red more than six times out of ten. We will grade the close right here.

What the data showed

  • $CCHH -32.82% CCH Holdings Ltd · closed red 59% · green 40% (n=865) mcap $9M · float 7M shares
  • $YHC -27.67% LQR House Inc. · closed red 56% · green 43% (n=2,153) mcap $833,282 · float 21M shares · sector: BEVERAGES
  • $ONFO -24.92% Onfolio Holdings, Inc. · closed red 56% · green 43% (n=2,153) mcap $3M · float 4M shares · sector: SERVICES-COMPUTER PROCESSING & DATA PREPARATION
  • $BYRN -24.92% Byrna Technologies Inc. · closed red 54% · green 45% (n=178) mcap $161M · float 16M shares · sector: MISCELLANEOUS ELECTRICAL MACHINERY, EQUIPMENT & SUPPLIES
  • $VTAK -22.63% Catheter Precision, Inc. · closed red 59% · green 40% (n=1,421) mcap $2M · float 2M shares · sector: SURGICAL & MEDICAL INSTRUMENTS & APPARATUS
  • $IONS -19.37% Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. · closed red 55% · green 44% (n=3,606) mcap $13.7B · float 159M shares · sector: PHARMACEUTICAL PREPARATIONS
  • $GLOO -18.97% Gloo Holdings, Inc. · closed red 55% · green 44% (n=3,606) float 5M shares
  • $CPOP -18.86% Pop Culture Group Co., Ltd · closed red 55% · green 44% (n=3,606) mcap $25M · float 2M shares
  • $CCM -17.48% Concord Medical Services Holdings Limited · closed red 55% · green 44% (n=3,606) mcap $23M · float 42M shares
  • $LMFA -16.39% LM Funding America, Inc. · closed red 55% · green 44% (n=3,606) mcap $3M · float 16M shares · sector: FINANCE SERVICES

Before chasing a $1M market cap trading millions of shares in the pre-market, look at the historical base rates. Run the numbers on FILTRIX.net to see how low-float supply deal gaps actually close. Discipline > FOMO

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