$VRAX is up 246.86% in the pre-market. The catalyst is a supply agreement. The reality is a $1M market cap and a massive 19M share float.
When we run the numbers on similar catalyst-driven gaps of 30% or more, the results are remarkably consistent. In 2,881 historical cases, these setups closed green just 34% of the time, posting a median intraday return of -6.79%.
In our previous update, we called out $LUCY and $EDBL before they faded to close down 37% and 12% respectively on their call day. The math does not care about chatroom hype.
History says this gap fades to red more than six times out of ten. We will grade the close right here.