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$BIOT -27.74% — what the base rate says

$BIOT -27.74% — what the base rate says

The easiest way to lose capital is to mistake a low-float liquidity trap for a fundamental turnaround.

$CISS is up 65.14% before the open on exactly zero news. It has a tiny 530,000-share float. Our backtester analyzed 17 historical gap-up days for this stock. It closed red 88% of them, with a median intraday return of -9.03%.

On the other side of the tape, Enlivex ($ENLV) slides 21.60% after announcing a $400M private placement. When a company with a $179M market cap prints that many new shares, the math of dilution isn't a suggestion—it's a gravity wave.

The base rate says $CISS has an 88% probability of closing red today. We'll track it at the bell.

What the data showed

  • $BIOT -27.74% Instinct Brothers Co., Ltd. · closed red 56% · green 43% (n=2,153) float 23M shares
  • $TZOO -27.52% Travelzoo · closed red 54% · green 45% (n=178) float 6M shares
  • $INVZ -25.69% Innoviz Technologies Ltd. · closed red 56% · green 43% (n=2,153) mcap $172M · float 205M shares
  • $SPWR -24.89% SunPower Inc. · closed red 54% · green 45% (n=178) mcap $82M · float 111M shares · sector: CONSTRUCTION - SPECIAL TRADE CONTRACTORS
  • $ENLV -21.60% Enlivex Ltd. · closed red 56% · green 43% (n=2,153) mcap $179M · float 240M shares
  • $FIEE -19.03% FiEE, Inc. · closed red 56% · green 43% (n=2,301) mcap $23M · float 1M shares · sector: TELEPHONE & TELEGRAPH APPARATUS
  • $REPL -19.00% Replimune Group, Inc. · closed red 55% · green 44% (n=3,606) mcap $814M · float 72M shares · sector: BIOLOGICAL PRODUCTS, (NO DIAGNOSTIC SUBSTANCES)
  • $GLW -16.99% Corning Incorporated · closed red 53% · green 46% (n=323) mcap $126.2B · float 786M shares · sector: DRAWING & INSULATING OF NONFERROUS WIRE
  • $WETO -15.78% Wetour Robotics Limited · closed red 55% · green 44% (n=3,606) mcap $41M · float 66M shares
  • $GMEX -15.00% GMEX Robotics Corporation · closed red 55% · green 44% (n=3,606) mcap $2M · float 841,428 shares

Don't guess how often these pre-market ghost pumps fade. Run the historical gap-up odds on FILTRIX.net before the opening bell rings and see the exact win rates for yourself. Discipline > FOMO

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