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$CVRX -49.50% — what the base rate says

$CVRX -49.50% — what the base rate says

Grading the books: our $TKNO short-bias call yesterday was a miss. It closed up 14% ($6.53). We record the data point and move on.

Let's look at $CPOP. It is gapping up 35.97% this morning on absolutely zero news. In 14 historical gap-up days like this, the stock has faded to red 86% of the time. That is not a guess; that is a base rate. Retail sees a cheap low-float name escaping gravity, but history sees a door about to slam shut.

On the other side of the tape, actual earnings are driving $DOCS up 74.73% while $TTD drops 29.09% on weak guidance.

We expect $CPOP to close red by Monday's bell. Let's see if the 86% historical fade rate holds.

What the data showed

  • $CVRX -49.50% CVRx, Inc. · closed red 52% · green 47% (n=58)
  • $WYHG -43.34% Wing Yip Food Holdings Group Limited · closed red 59% · green 40% (n=865) float 2M shares
  • $XHLD -38.79% TEN Holdings, Inc. · closed red 62% · green 37% (n=641) mcap $10M · float 2M shares · sector: SERVICES-BUSINESS SERVICES, NEC
  • $TTD -29.09% The Trade Desk, Inc. · closed red 54% · green 45% (n=178) mcap $8.9B · float 424M shares · sector: SERVICES-COMPUTER PROGRAMMING, DATA PROCESSING, ETC.
  • $HCAT -25.54% Health Catalyst, Inc. · closed red 54% · green 45% (n=178) mcap $177M · float 64M shares · sector: SERVICES-COMPUTER PROGRAMMING, DATA PROCESSING, ETC.
  • $XPOF -25.31% Xponential Fitness, Inc. · closed red 54% · green 45% (n=178) mcap $281M · float 28M shares · sector: SERVICES-MISCELLANEOUS AMUSEMENT & RECREATION
  • $SEZL -25.18% Sezzle Inc. · closed red 54% · green 45% (n=178) mcap $5.9B · float 18M shares · sector: SERVICES-BUSINESS SERVICES, NEC
  • $ONFO -23.33% Onfolio Holdings, Inc. · closed red 56% · green 43% (n=2,153) mcap $511,128 · float 4M shares · sector: SERVICES-COMPUTER PROCESSING & DATA PREPARATION
  • $ORGO -21.99% Organogenesis Holdings Inc. · closed red 54% · green 45% (n=178) mcap $305M · float 65M shares · sector: PHARMACEUTICAL PREPARATIONS
  • $BAER -20.41% Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. · closed red 54% · green 45% (n=178) mcap $103M · float 28M shares · sector: SERVICES-BUSINESS SERVICES, NEC

Before you chase another zero-news gap-up into the weekend, pull the historical sample on FILTRIX.net. Let the data tell you if you're holding an edge or just holding a bag. Discipline > FOMO

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