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$KPTI -71.47% — what the base rate says

$KPTI -71.47% — what the base rate says

Let's settle the score first: Yesterday we warned about $MGRX. It opened at 0.42 and dumped to 0.2936, closing -30% red. Process over outcome, but the outcomes sure like the process.

Today's main attraction is Focus Universal ($FCUV), up 378% on absolutely zero news. It is a $1M market cap company with a tiny 2 million share float.

When a micro-cap gaps up over 30% with no news, retail sees "to the moon." Our database sees a different story. In 2,411 historical instances of this exact setup, the stock closed red 70% of the time, with a median intraday return of -10.49%.

Translation: the house wins 7 out of 10 times against the chasers. If you are buying the pre-market high here, you are providing the liquidity for someone else's exit.

Keep your hands in your pockets.

What the data showed

  • $KPTI -71.47% Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc. · closed red 52% · green 47% (n=58) mcap $161M · float 11M shares · sector: PHARMACEUTICAL PREPARATIONS
  • $BIOA -61.97% BioAge Labs, Inc. · closed red 59% · green 40% (n=865) mcap $974M · float 40M shares · sector: PHARMACEUTICAL PREPARATIONS
  • $NUWE -60.45% Nuwellis, Inc. · closed red 59% · green 40% (n=865) mcap $177,948 · float 3M shares · sector: ELECTROMEDICAL & ELECTROTHERAPEUTIC APPARATUS
  • $DFNS -54.11% T3 Defense Inc. · closed red 59% · green 40% (n=865) mcap $24M · float 58M shares · sector: SERVICES-MANAGEMENT CONSULTING SERVICES
  • $MYGN -37.62% Myriad Genetics, Inc. · closed red 52% · green 47% (n=58) mcap $502M · float 89M shares · sector: IN VITRO & IN VIVO DIAGNOSTIC SUBSTANCES
  • $PN -34.47% PN Smart Energy Limited · closed red 59% · green 40% (n=865) mcap $13M · float 1M shares
  • $GLUE -30.91% Monte Rosa Therapeutics, Inc. · closed red 59% · green 40% (n=865) mcap $1.9B · float 81M shares · sector: BIOLOGICAL PRODUCTS, (NO DIAGNOSTIC SUBSTANCES)
  • $GCTK -26.06% GlucoTrack, Inc. · closed red 59% · green 40% (n=1,421) mcap $2M · float 6M shares · sector: SURGICAL & MEDICAL INSTRUMENTS & APPARATUS
  • $YYAI -22.94% AiRWA Inc. · closed red 56% · green 43% (n=2,153) mcap $944,412 · float 38M shares · sector: SERVICES-COMPUTER PROGRAMMING, DATA PROCESSING, ETC.
  • $RBLX -22.50% Roblox Corporation · closed red 56% · green 43% (n=2,153) mcap $35.4B · float 619M shares · sector: SERVICES-PREPACKAGED SOFTWARE

Don't trade the 'this time is different' narrative. Run the historical odds on FILTRIX.net and see how these micro-cap setups actually behave before the open. Discipline > FOMO

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