FILTRIX Logo FILTRIX Find Your Edge →
← All insights

$TRBG -36.49% — what the base rate says

$TRBG -36.49% — what the base rate says

Receipts first: yesterday's $AKAN fade call delivered, opening at 3.78 and closing at 3.67 (-3% red).

Now, look at today's gainer board leader: Immuron ($IMRN) is gapping up 56.76% on news of launching PROIBS in the United States. Retail sees a rocket emoji. Historical sample sizes see something else entirely.

In our database of 3,283 historical instances of catalyst-driven gap-ups of 30% or greater, the median intraday return is -7.23%. These setups close green only 34% of the time, while fading to red in 66% of cases. Short-side execution wins 65% of the time.

Trading the headline feels exciting until the closing print matches the historical average.

What the data showed

  • $TRBG -36.49% TurboGen Ltd. · closed red 62% · green 37% (n=746)
  • $BTAI -22.98% BioXcel Therapeutics, Inc. · closed red 56% · green 43% (n=2,435) mcap $3M · float 31M shares · sector: PHARMACEUTICAL PREPARATIONS
  • $EGAN -22.79% eGain Corporation · closed red 52% · green 47% (n=206) mcap $195M · float 22M shares · sector: SERVICES-PREPACKAGED SOFTWARE
  • $LULU -19.52% lululemon athletica inc. · closed red 51% · green 48% (n=379) mcap $13.8B · float 104M shares · sector: APPAREL & OTHER FINISHD PRODS OF FABRICS & SIMILAR MATL
  • $ALP -17.57% Alpha Compute Corp · closed red 54% · green 45% (n=4,108) float 76M shares
  • $NCT -17.11% Intercont (Cayman · closed red 55% · green 44% (n=2,786) mcap $2M · float 320,000 shares
  • $GWRE -16.40% Guidewire Software, Inc. · closed red 51% · green 48% (n=379) mcap $16.9B · float 83M shares · sector: SERVICES-PREPACKAGED SOFTWARE
  • $SPWR -15.42% SunPower Inc. · closed red 54% · green 45% (n=4,108) mcap $53M · float 175M shares · sector: CONSTRUCTION - SPECIAL TRADE CONTRACTORS
  • $OXM -15.37% Oxford Industries, Inc. · closed red 51% · green 48% (n=379) mcap $547M · float 14M shares · sector: MEN'S & BOYS' FURNISHGS, WORK CLOTHG, & ALLIED GARMENTS
  • $MOGU -15.10% MOGU Inc. · closed red 55% · green 44% (n=2,786) mcap $19M · float 2M shares

Pull the historical distribution on FILTRIX.net before buying morning gap-ups blindly. Base rates protect your capital when hype evaporates. Discipline > FOMO.

Find Your Edge on FILTRIX →