Friday after-hours trading is where discipline goes to die. $NCT rips 43.94% because management issued a statement promising 'compliance and transparency' on a tiny 320,000-share float. No contracts, no revenue—just corporate poetry. Across 3,283 historical instances of catalyst gap-ups over 30%, the base rate is ruthless: the tape fades to red 66% of the time with a median drop of -7.23%.
On the other side of the tape, yesterday's runner $TNON cratered 36.65% after dropping a $2.87 million warrant inducement directly onto retail's head. The exit liquidity was scheduled; only the buyers were surprised.