Nuwellis ($NUWE) is currently the poster child for micro-cap after-hours euphoria. The tiny $189k market-cap company rocketed 111.6% on local sales PR. But the database has a long memory. Historically, when setups like this gap up ≥30%, they close red 65% of the time across 2,881 similar setups. For $NUWE specifically, the gap-up fade rate jumps to 75% over its own history. Over-eager retail is paying double today for a setup that is mathematically slated to shrink. The historical base rate says this fades hard by tomorrow's bell—we'll grade the receipt on this gap-up tomorrow.
$TDOC -23.31% — what the base rate says
What the data showed
- $TDOC -23.31% mcap $1.6B · float 176M shares · sector: SERVICES-OFFICES & CLINICS OF DOCTORS OF MEDICINE
- $INO -20.19% mcap $80M · float 82M shares · sector: PHARMACEUTICAL PREPARATIONS
- $SPRC -18.92% mcap $3M · float 570,000 shares
- $FTAI -18.43% mcap $22.2B · float 101M shares · sector: SERVICES-MISCELLANEOUS EQUIPMENT RENTAL & LEASING
- $TREE -14.75% mcap $544M · float 8M shares · sector: LOAN BROKERS
- $BDRX -12.77% mcap $2M · float 732,000 shares
- $CVNA -12.55% mcap $43.3B · float 130M shares · sector: RETAIL-AUTO DEALERS & GASOLINE STATIONS
- $YMAT -12.14% mcap $14M · float 11M shares
- $MX -11.30% mcap $128M · float 31M shares · sector: SEMICONDUCTORS & RELATED DEVICES
- $YYAI -11.17% mcap $12M · float 38M shares · sector: SERVICES-COMPUTER PROGRAMMING, DATA PROCESSING, ETC.
Do not play guessing games with after-hours volatility. Pull the historical gap-up sample on FILTRIX.net to see exactly how often these low-float PR runs reverse. Discipline > FOMO
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