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CVNA Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 446 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-19 → 2025-02-10

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Apr 28, 2017 🔗 www.carvana.com
💰 Market Cap: $66.94B 👥 Employees: 17,400
Carvana Co is an e-commerce platform for buying and selling used cars. The company derives revenue from used vehicle sales, wholesale vehicle sales and other sales and revenues. The other sales and revenues include sales of loans originated and sold in securitization transactions or to financing partners, commissions received on VSCs and sales of GAP waiver coverage. The foundation of the business is retail vehicle unit sales. This drives the majority of the revenue and allows the company to capture additional revenue streams associated with financing, VSCs, auto insurance and GAP waiver coverage, as well as trade-in vehicles.
📊
446
Total Alerts
🎯
48.9%
Win Rate (60MIN)
💰
+0.19%
Avg Gain (60MIN)
🚀
+6.47%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 47.5%
Avg Gain: -0.06%
Avg Winner: +1.25%
Avg Loser: -1.27%
Best: +7.97%
Worst: -5.69%
Trades: 211/229

15MIN

Win Rate: 45.9%
Avg Gain: -0.15%
Avg Winner: +2.54%
Avg Loser: -2.45%
Best: +13.29%
Worst: -12.57%
Trades: 204/239

30MIN

Win Rate: 47.3%
Avg Gain: +0.01%
Avg Winner: +3.35%
Avg Loser: -3.03%
Best: +22.87%
Worst: -16.07%
Trades: 210/231

60MIN

Win Rate: 48.9%
Avg Gain: +0.19%
Avg Winner: +4.35%
Avg Loser: -3.80%
Best: +36.81%
Worst: -18.12%
Trades: 217/226

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 46.9%
Avg Gain: +0.39%
Avg Winner: +6.97%
Avg Loser: -5.43%
Best: +38.45%
Worst: -31.93%
Trades: 209/236

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +6.47%
Best MFE: +53.25%
Avg Time to MFE: 123 min

On average, CVNA alerts reach +6.47% profit potential within 123 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -2.22%
Worst MAE: -20.58%
Avg Time to MAE: 16 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 2.22%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.91:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.91x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 446 alerts, CVNA typically reaches +6.47% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 5.2% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 446
Gap Up % 38.6%
Avg Gap -0.17%
Best Gap +4.38%

🏭 Sector Comparison: RETAIL-AUTO DEALERS & GASOLINE STATIONS

How CVNA compares to 8 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
CVNA: -0.06% Sector: -0.27% +0.21%
EOD Gain
CVNA: +0.39% Sector: +3463.44% -3463.05%
Avg MFE
CVNA: +6.48% Sector: +5.90% +0.58%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical CVNA alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-10 09:28:57 $264.76 -1.41% -1.82% -0.46% +0.49% +1.15% +2.05% -2.55% -0.14% LOSS
2025-01-08 09:29:36 $203.6 -0.54% -1.74% -1.23% -4.83% -3.24% -0.07% -0.66% -0.07% LOSS
2025-01-07 09:26:45 $199.52 +0.77% +1.93% +2.16% +1.47% -0.59% +3.79% -0.26% +0.05% WIN
2025-01-06 09:27:59 $185.25 +2.27% +2.19% +0.75% -1.20% +1.94% +4.33% -0.04% +1.47% WIN
2025-01-03 09:29:11 $187.04 +0.11% +1.28% +2.15% +4.61% -5.28% +5.59% -2.12% +0.62% WIN
2024-11-06 09:29:53 $246.0 -2.06% -1.35% -2.02% -2.04% -2.87% -0.41% -0.41% -0.41% LOSS
2024-11-05 09:28:56 $230.63 +0.69% +1.42% +1.66% +1.51% +2.19% +2.48% -0.68% +0.16% WIN
2024-11-04 09:28:24 $225.99 -1.71% -1.28% -1.33% -0.52% +0.04% +1.41% -2.78% +0.22% LOSS
2024-11-01 09:28:55 $246.21 -0.90% -2.69% -3.44% -1.54% -6.96% +0.93% -0.29% +0.45% LOSS
2024-10-31 09:26:28 $237.8 +0.03% +1.06% +4.58% +4.05% +4.00% +9.08% -1.90% +0.17% WIN
2024-08-05 09:27:36 $120.8 -0.54% +3.83% +6.37% +6.42% +12.04% +14.69% -1.90% -1.28% LOSS
2024-08-02 09:25:03 $138.84 -0.90% +2.64% -1.98% -0.67% -1.18% +2.89% -1.40% +0.70% LOSS
2024-08-01 09:26:10 $146.6 -3.93% -1.87% +4.07% +3.21% -0.05% +5.05% -5.34% +0.50% LOSS
2024-07-10 09:27:47 $131.37 +1.16% +2.60% +2.57% -1.16% -0.30% +3.94% -1.42% +0.10% WIN
2024-06-06 09:25:34 $108.8 +0.32% -1.34% -1.74% -3.26% -3.80% +1.00% -1.40% -0.98% WIN
2024-05-14 09:26:31 $120.65 +1.31% +0.76% +0.16% +0.11% +0.25% +3.29% -0.48% +0.74% WIN
2024-05-03 09:25:12 $119.55 -0.02% -0.80% -0.07% -2.66% +1.77% +3.89% -3.15% -0.29% LOSS
2024-05-02 09:25:35 $118.7 +1.34% -2.70% +0.34% -0.64% -1.85% +3.03% -3.76% +1.05% WIN
2024-04-29 09:28:49 $85.71 +3.00% +0.26% +1.59% +0.90% -2.28% +3.23% -0.10% +0.06% WIN
2024-04-26 09:28:55 $77.34 +0.19% +2.47% +2.97% +4.33% +9.01% +9.27% -0.44% +0.79% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 48.9% Baseline on CVNA

The 48.9% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push CVNA's performance to 75%+.

Optimize CVNA Strategy →

Why Analyze CVNA with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for CVNA. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, CVNA historically offers an average upside of +6.47% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 CVNA Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 48.9%, CVNA shows neutral behavior, suggesting the need for additional volume confirmation.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show CVNA performs best on the 60MIN timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.19%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.