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$CPOP -40.73% — what the base rate says

$CPOP -40.73% — what the base rate says

$LUCY is ramping 27.56% in the pre-market on absolutely zero news. This is a $8M ophthalmic goods penny stock with a 5M share float, moving purely on the fumes of order-book vacuum.

Let's pull the actual historical sample. Out of 17 prior gap-up days like today for $LUCY, the stock has closed red 76% of the time, with a brutal median intraday return of -4.82%. In the broader database, no-news gap-ups on low-float micro-caps close red 68% of the time across 3,671 instances.

The base rate is screaming that the exit door is incredibly narrow. But the retail chatrooms are already calculating target prices for a 'short squeeze.'

History says this closes red within two sessions—we'll grade it here.

What the data showed

  • $CPOP -40.73% Pop Culture Group Co., Ltd · closed red 62% · green 37% (n=641) mcap $25M · float 2M shares
  • $BIYA -30.36% Baiya International Group Inc. · closed red 59% · green 40% (n=865) mcap $4M · float 1M shares
  • $MOGU -24.52% MOGU Inc. · closed red 59% · green 40% (n=1,421) mcap $19M · float 7M shares
  • $PFSA -22.78% Profusa, Inc. · closed red 59% · green 40% (n=1,421) mcap $21,251 · float 5M shares · sector: SURGICAL & MEDICAL INSTRUMENTS & APPARATUS
  • $FCEL -19.61% FuelCell Energy, Inc. · closed red 55% · green 44% (n=3,606) mcap $2.0B · float 53M shares · sector: ELECTRICAL INDUSTRIAL APPARATUS
  • $TDTH -19.53% Trident Digital Tech Holdings Ltd · closed red 55% · green 44% (n=3,606) mcap $8M · float 2M shares
  • $CMMB -18.77% Chemomab Therapeutics Ltd. · closed red 55% · green 44% (n=3,606) mcap $17M · float 7M shares · sector: PHARMACEUTICAL PREPARATIONS
  • $EDHL -18.02% Everbright Digital Holding Limited · closed red 56% · green 43% (n=2,301) mcap $4M · float 540,000 shares
  • $LHSW -17.04% Lianhe Sowell International Group Ltd · closed red 56% · green 43% (n=2,301) mcap $11M · float 19M shares
  • $SUGP -16.58% SU Group Holdings Limited · closed red 56% · green 43% (n=2,301) mcap $6M · float 4M shares

Before you chase a real estate company buying AI servers or a data firm digging for helium, check the historical probabilities. Run the numbers on FILTRIX.net to see how often these specific 'strategic pivot' gaps actually hold their gains by the close. Discipline > FOMO

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