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$SPY +0.00% — what the base rate says

$SPY +0.00% — what the base rate says

A 25.64 VIX on a Sunday is Thursday's 28.18 that Friday only partly gave back, parked over a $SPY at $735.29 sitting right above its 200-day, with CPI printing Tuesday and PPI Friday. One desk post already has December hike odds near 77% after the jobs report; that is its number, and the Tuesday print is what moves it either way.

The pre-mortem for this week is short and done in writing. The loss comes first: what size survives a hot number, where the stop sits if the 200-day gives, and the one thing you will not do at 8:31 Tuesday. If the answer only exists after the number, the number is the one trading.

Friday's partial giveback is the only measured thing in this paragraph; everything else in it prints at 8:30 Tuesday.

What the data showed

  • $SPY +0.00% float 801M shares
  • $TTWO +0.00% mcap $40.2B · float 164M shares · sector: SERVICES-PREPACKAGED SOFTWARE

Before sizing Tuesday, inspect on FILTRIX.net how SPY sessions that opened with a gap have closed against their opens; a historical sample beats a Sunday feeling about a 200-day line.

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