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SPY Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 759 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-03 → 2025-02-14

🏢 Company Profile

State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
📍 NYSE Arca 📅 IPO: Feb 24, 2009
📊
759
Total Alerts
🎯
56.0%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
+0.01%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+0.62%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 56.0%
Avg Gain: +0.01%
Avg Winner: +0.08%
Avg Loser: -0.08%
Best: +0.44%
Worst: -0.44%
Trades: 424/328

15MIN

Win Rate: 51.1%
Avg Gain: +0.00%
Avg Winner: +0.17%
Avg Loser: -0.17%
Best: +0.86%
Worst: -0.78%
Trades: 387/368

30MIN

Win Rate: 52.4%
Avg Gain: +0.01%
Avg Winner: +0.22%
Avg Loser: -0.23%
Best: +0.96%
Worst: -1.30%
Trades: 397/358

60MIN

Win Rate: 51.7%
Avg Gain: +0.00%
Avg Winner: +0.30%
Avg Loser: -0.32%
Best: +1.59%
Worst: -1.96%
Trades: 391/366

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 54.5%
Avg Gain: +0.02%
Avg Winner: +0.64%
Avg Loser: -0.72%
Best: +4.84%
Worst: -3.41%
Trades: 414/344

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +0.62%
Best MFE: +5.28%
Avg Time to MFE: 197 min

On average, SPY alerts reach +0.62% profit potential within 197 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.27%
Worst MAE: -2.61%
Avg Time to MAE: 43 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.27%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.33:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.33x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 759 alerts, SPY typically reaches +0.62% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 0.5% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 759
Gap Up % 52.3%
Avg Gap +0.00%
Best Gap +0.44%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical SPY alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-14 09:28:07 $610.16 -0.02% +0.04% +0.04% +0.05% -0.08% +0.14% -0.07% -0.04% LOSS
2025-02-13 09:28:23 $604.42 +0.07% -0.03% +0.07% +0.26% +0.88% +0.91% -0.20% +0.01% WIN
2025-02-12 09:28:52 $599.35 +0.05% +0.20% +0.33% +0.35% +0.67% +0.87% -0.14% -0.03% WIN
2025-02-11 09:28:04 $602.48 +0.09% +0.15% +0.15% +0.27% +0.47% +0.56% -0.01% +0.01% WIN
2025-02-10 09:29:24 $604.12 -0.11% -0.17% -0.10% +0.10% +0.12% +0.23% -0.23% -0.01% LOSS
2025-02-07 09:29:17 $606.86 +0.06% +0.11% +0.16% -0.38% -1.00% +0.21% -0.05% +0.00% WIN
2025-02-06 09:26:37 $606.07 -0.08% -0.14% -0.12% -0.17% +0.04% +0.07% -0.57% -0.01% LOSS
2025-02-05 09:28:53 $600.75 -0.05% +0.02% -0.10% -0.02% +0.58% +0.60% -0.36% -0.02% LOSS
2025-02-04 09:28:25 $597.9 +0.03% +0.10% +0.20% +0.45% +0.65% +0.74% -0.10% -0.01% WIN
2025-02-03 09:26:31 $591.86 +0.35% +0.33% +0.03% +0.58% +1.00% +1.42% -0.23% +0.14% WIN
2025-01-31 09:26:04 $607.19 +0.10% +0.12% +0.12% +0.27% -0.88% +0.46% -0.02% +0.05% WIN
2025-01-30 09:27:00 $603.28 +0.16% +0.12% +0.35% -0.02% +0.29% +0.55% -0.43% +0.11% WIN
2025-01-29 09:27:02 $603.94 -0.12% -0.19% -0.10% -0.16% -0.35% +0.03% -0.25% -0.04% LOSS
2025-01-28 09:29:18 $600.4 -0.13% -0.33% -0.24% +0.34% +0.69% +0.83% -0.52% +0.04% LOSS
2025-01-27 09:28:17 $594.99 +0.44% +0.48% +0.59% +0.62% +0.74% +0.79% -0.06% -0.03% WIN
2025-01-24 09:25:55 $609.54 +0.07% +0.09% +0.10% -0.02% -0.26% +0.20% -0.03% +0.04% WIN
2025-01-23 09:25:24 $605.74 -0.01% +0.07% +0.06% +0.03% +0.66% +0.66% -0.04% +0.01% LOSS
2025-01-22 09:28:04 $605.67 -0.02% -0.01% +0.13% +0.19% +0.13% +0.35% -0.05% +0.04% LOSS
2025-01-21 09:29:46 $600.66 +0.03% -0.03% -0.07% -0.04% +0.40% +0.42% -0.33% +0.00% WIN
2025-01-17 09:27:56 $597.1 -0.12% -0.20% -0.13% -0.07% +0.08% +0.38% -0.25% -0.02% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 56.0% Baseline on SPY

The 56.0% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push SPY's performance to 75%+.

Optimize SPY Strategy →

Why Analyze SPY with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for SPY. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, SPY historically offers an average upside of +0.62% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 SPY Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 56.0%, SPY shows neutral behavior, suggesting the need for additional volume confirmation.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show SPY performs best on the 5MIN timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.01%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.