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BIL Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 223 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-07-01 → 2025-02-14

🏢 Company Profile

State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
📍 NYSE Arca 📅 IPO: Nov 07, 2008
📊
223
Total Alerts
🎯
44.3%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
-0.00%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+0.01%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 44.3%
Avg Gain: -0.00%
Avg Winner: +0.01%
Avg Loser: -0.01%
Best: +0.01%
Worst: -0.02%
Trades: 98/89

15MIN

Win Rate: 43.0%
Avg Gain: +0.00%
Avg Winner: +0.01%
Avg Loser: -0.01%
Best: +0.01%
Worst: -0.02%
Trades: 95/90

30MIN

Win Rate: 40.3%
Avg Gain: -0.00%
Avg Winner: +0.01%
Avg Loser: -0.01%
Best: +0.01%
Worst: -0.02%
Trades: 89/80

60MIN

Win Rate: 43.9%
Avg Gain: -0.00%
Avg Winner: +0.01%
Avg Loser: -0.01%
Best: +0.01%
Worst: -0.03%
Trades: 97/88

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 25.6%
Avg Gain: -0.00%
Avg Winner: +0.01%
Avg Loser: -0.01%
Best: +0.01%
Worst: -0.02%
Trades: 57/59

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +0.01%
Best MFE: +0.13%
Avg Time to MFE: 20 min

On average, BIL alerts reach +0.01% profit potential within 20 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.00%
Worst MAE: -0.02%
Avg Time to MAE: 4 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.00%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.12:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.12x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 223 alerts, BIL typically reaches +0.01% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 0.0% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 223
Gap Up % 20.2%
Avg Gap -0.00%
Best Gap +0.01%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical BIL alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-14 09:28:12 $91.58 +0.01% +0.01% - +0.01% - +0.01% +0.01% - WIN
2025-02-11 09:28:50 $91.52 +0.01% +0.00% +0.00% +0.01% - +0.01% - - WIN
2025-02-07 09:26:20 $91.51 -0.01% -0.01% - -0.01% -0.01% - -0.01% - LOSS
2025-02-04 09:27:45 $91.45 +0.01% +0.01% +0.00% +0.01% - +0.01% - +0.01% WIN
2025-02-03 09:27:06 $91.45 -0.01% -0.00% - -0.01% - - -0.01% - LOSS
2025-01-31 09:29:11 $91.75 +0.01% +0.01% +0.01% +0.00% - +0.01% - - WIN
2025-01-27 09:25:00 $91.69 +0.01% +0.00% +0.01% +0.01% +0.01% +0.01% - - WIN
2025-01-23 09:27:15 $91.66 -0.01% -0.00% -0.01% -0.01% -0.01% - -0.01% - LOSS
2025-01-21 09:26:36 $91.63 +0.01% +0.01% +0.00% +0.01% - +0.01% - - WIN
2025-01-17 09:25:21 $91.63 -0.01% -0.01% - -0.00% - - -0.01% -0.01% LOSS
2025-01-15 09:25:25 $91.57 +0.01% +0.01% - +0.01% +0.01% +0.01% - +0.01% WIN
2025-01-14 09:29:40 $91.56 +0.01% +0.01% +0.01% +0.01% +0.01% +0.01% - - WIN
2025-01-13 09:25:31 $91.56 -0.01% -0.00% -0.01% -0.01% -0.01% - -0.01% -0.01% LOSS
2025-01-10 09:28:52 $91.54 +0.01% - - +0.00% - +0.01% - +0.01% WIN
2025-01-08 09:28:22 $91.5 +0.00% +0.01% +0.00% +0.00% +0.01% +0.01% - +0.01% LOSS
2025-01-06 09:28:04 $91.47 - +0.00% +0.01% +0.00% - +0.01% - - -
2025-01-03 09:29:27 $91.47 - -0.01% -0.00% -0.01% -0.01% +0.01% -0.01% +0.01% -
2025-01-02 09:27:47 $91.44 - - +0.00% +0.01% +0.01% +0.01% - +0.01% -
2024-12-31 09:25:02 $91.43 +0.00% +0.01% +0.01% +0.00% - +0.01% - +0.01% LOSS
2024-12-30 09:27:34 $91.42 - -0.01% -0.01% -0.00% -0.01% - -0.01% -0.01% -

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ BIL Shows Negative Expectancy

With 44.3% win rate and -0.00% average gain, BIL alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider BIL for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze BIL with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for BIL. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, BIL historically offers an average upside of +0.01% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 BIL Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 44.3%, BIL shows choppy price action, requiring strict filters or quick profit-taking.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: BIL shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 5MIN at -0.00%). This suggests BIL is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.