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BLBD Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 9 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2023-05-12 → 2024-10-16

⚠️ Small sample size (9 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Blue Bird Corporation Common Stock TRUCK & BUS BODIES (SIC 3713)
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Mar 20, 2014 🔗 www.blue-bird.com
💰 Market Cap: $1.57B 👥 Employees: 2,012
Blue Bird Corp is an American bus manufacturing company. It is an independent designer and manufacturer of school buses. The company operates in two segments; the Bus segment which involves the design, engineering, manufacture, and sales of school buses and extended warranties; and the Parts segment which includes the sales of replacement bus parts. Geographically, the company generates a majority of its revenue from its customers in the United States and the rest from Canada and Rest of the world.
📊
9
Total Alerts
🎯
77.8%
Win Rate (EOD)
💰
+1.76%
Avg Gain (EOD)
🚀
+4.45%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 66.7%
Avg Gain: +1.32%
Avg Winner: +2.58%
Avg Loser: -1.21%
Best: +5.53%
Worst: -1.62%
Trades: 6/3

15MIN

Win Rate: 55.6%
Avg Gain: +1.41%
Avg Winner: +2.94%
Avg Loser: -0.50%
Best: +8.90%
Worst: -1.40%
Trades: 5/4

30MIN

Win Rate: 62.5%
Avg Gain: +1.46%
Avg Winner: +2.98%
Avg Loser: -1.08%
Best: +9.60%
Worst: -1.29%
Trades: 5/3

60MIN

Win Rate: 55.6%
Avg Gain: +1.06%
Avg Winner: +2.45%
Avg Loser: -0.68%
Best: +8.76%
Worst: -1.16%
Trades: 5/4

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 77.8%
Avg Gain: +1.76%
Avg Winner: +2.65%
Avg Loser: -1.37%
Best: +7.12%
Worst: -2.68%
Trades: 7/2

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +4.45%
Best MFE: +12.90%
Avg Time to MFE: 156 min

On average, BLBD alerts reach +4.45% profit potential within 156 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.01%
Worst MAE: -3.74%
Avg Time to MAE: 14 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.01%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

4.41:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 4.41x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 9 alerts, BLBD typically reaches +4.45% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 3.6% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 9
Gap Up % 66.7%
Avg Gap +0.32%
Best Gap +1.15%

🏭 Sector Comparison: TRUCK & BUS BODIES

How BLBD compares to 2 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
BLBD: +1.13% Sector: -0.85% +1.98%
EOD Gain
BLBD: +1.99% Sector: +2.05% -0.06%
Avg MFE
BLBD: +4.62% Sector: +6.42% -1.79%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical BLBD alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-10-16 09:26:19 $45.17 +1.53% +1.09% -1.03% +0.10% +1.13% +2.52% -1.51% +0.66% WIN
2024-10-10 09:26:52 $42.92 -1.62% -1.40% -1.29% -0.80% +0.47% +1.00% -3.74% -0.09% LOSS
2024-03-05 09:25:39 $33.72 -0.83% -0.21% +0.21% -0.50% +0.56% +1.45% -1.39% -0.68% LOSS
2024-02-16 09:28:01 $33.2 -1.19% -0.30% -0.90% -1.16% -2.68% +0.90% +0.04% +0.18% LOSS
2023-10-20 09:27:00 $18.44 +2.77% +0.29% - -0.27% -0.05% +3.04% +0.38% +0.38% WIN
2023-09-29 09:27:00 $21.03 +0.62% +1.00% +2.04% +1.76% +1.52% +2.90% +0.25% +0.95% WIN
2023-06-27 09:28:00 $20.66 +1.02% -0.10% +1.16% +0.97% +1.31% +4.43% -1.21% +0.29% WIN
2023-06-08 09:26:00 $20.86 +4.03% +3.40% +1.87% +0.67% +6.47% +10.88% -0.14% +1.15% WIN
2023-05-12 09:28:00 $24.58 +5.53% +8.90% +9.60% +8.76% +7.12% +12.90% -1.75% - WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 77.8% Baseline on BLBD

The 77.8% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push BLBD's performance to 75%+.

Optimize BLBD Strategy →

Why Analyze BLBD with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for BLBD. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, BLBD historically offers an average upside of +4.45% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 BLBD Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 77.8%, BLBD shows strong follow-through, making it a prime candidate for momentum strategies.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show BLBD performs best on the EOD (End of Day) timeframe (Avg Gain: +1.76%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.