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CSTM Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 4 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2024-04-24 → 2024-10-23

⚠️ Small sample size (4 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Constellium SE Class A Ordinary shares SECONDARY SMELTING & REFINING OF NONFERROUS METALS (SIC 3341)
📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: May 23, 2013 🔗 www.constellium.com
💰 Market Cap: $3.16B 👥 Employees: 12,000
Constellium SE is engaged in the design and manufacture of rolled and extruded aluminium products, serving the packaging, aerospace, automotive, defence and other transportation and industry end-markets. The business is organized into three operating segments: the Packaging and Automotive Rolled Products segment which includes the production of rolled aluminium sheet products in European and North American facilities; the Aerospace and Transportation segment includes the production of rolled aluminium products and very limited volumes of extruded products in European and North American facilities; the Automotive Structures and Industry segment includes the production of extruded aluminium products and aluminium structural components.
📊
4
Total Alerts
🎯
50.0%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
+0.03%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+2.29%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: +0.03%
Avg Winner: +2.46%
Avg Loser: -2.41%
Best: +3.50%
Worst: -3.46%
Trades: 2/2

15MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: +0.96%
Avg Winner: +2.95%
Avg Loser: -1.02%
Best: +4.83%
Worst: -1.47%
Trades: 2/2

30MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: +0.82%
Avg Winner: +2.58%
Avg Loser: -0.93%
Best: +4.40%
Worst: -1.16%
Trades: 2/2

60MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: -0.16%
Avg Winner: +1.28%
Avg Loser: -1.60%
Best: +1.50%
Worst: -1.87%
Trades: 2/2

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 25.0%
Avg Gain: -3.80%
Avg Winner: +0.25%
Avg Loser: -5.15%
Best: +0.25%
Worst: -8.29%
Trades: 1/3

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +2.29%
Best MFE: +5.64%
Avg Time to MFE: 90 min

On average, CSTM alerts reach +2.29% profit potential within 90 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.80%
Worst MAE: -1.79%
Avg Time to MAE: 57 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.80%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.85:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.85x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 4 alerts, CSTM typically reaches +2.29% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.8% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 4
Gap Up % 75.0%
Avg Gap +0.90%
Best Gap +2.56%

🏭 Sector Comparison: SECONDARY SMELTING & REFINING OF NONFERROUS METALS

How CSTM compares to 2 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
CSTM: +0.03% Sector: -0.27% +0.29%
EOD Gain
CSTM: -3.80% Sector: +8089.36% -8093.16%
Avg MFE
CSTM: +2.29% Sector: +8.51% -6.22%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical CSTM alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-10-23 09:26:51 $11.7 +3.50% +4.83% +4.40% +1.50% -8.29% +5.64% -1.28% +2.56% WIN
2024-07-09 09:26:25 $19.03 -1.37% -0.58% -1.16% -1.87% -1.89% -0.26% -1.79% -0.32% LOSS
2024-05-01 09:29:34 $19.69 +1.42% +1.07% +0.76% +1.07% +0.25% +3.25% - +0.86% WIN
2024-04-24 09:27:31 $21.1 -3.46% -1.47% -0.71% -1.33% -5.26% +0.52% -0.14% +0.47% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 50.0% Baseline on CSTM

The 50.0% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push CSTM's performance to 75%+.

Optimize CSTM Strategy →

Why Analyze CSTM with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for CSTM. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, CSTM historically offers an average upside of +2.29% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 CSTM Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 50.0%, CSTM shows neutral behavior, suggesting the need for additional volume confirmation.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show CSTM performs best on the 5MIN timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.03%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.