FILTRIX Logo FILTRIX Find Your Edge →

Latest signal:

GEO Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 33 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-21 → 2025-01-21

⚠️ Small sample size (33 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Jul 26, 1994 🔗 www.geogroup.com
💰 Market Cap: $2.58B 👥 Employees: 16,500
The GEO Group Inc specializes in detention facilities and community reentry centers. It operates in four segments: U.S. Secure Services, which mainly encompasses U.S.-based secure services business; Electronic Monitoring and Supervision Services, which conducts its services in the United States, represents services provided to adults for monitoring services and evidence-based supervision and treatment programs for community-based parolees, probationers, and pretrial defendants; Reentry Services conducts its services in the United States represents services provided to adults for residential and non-residential treatment, educational and community-based programs, pre-release and half-way house programs; and International Services.
📊
33
Total Alerts
🎯
51.5%
Win Rate (EOD)
💰
+0.36%
Avg Gain (EOD)
🚀
+3.43%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 39.4%
Avg Gain: -0.15%
Avg Winner: +1.71%
Avg Loser: -1.43%
Best: +5.06%
Worst: -3.69%
Trades: 13/19

15MIN

Win Rate: 36.4%
Avg Gain: -0.53%
Avg Winner: +2.54%
Avg Loser: -2.53%
Best: +10.61%
Worst: -6.13%
Trades: 12/19

30MIN

Win Rate: 30.3%
Avg Gain: -0.76%
Avg Winner: +3.37%
Avg Loser: -2.56%
Best: +12.37%
Worst: -7.25%
Trades: 10/23

60MIN

Win Rate: 33.3%
Avg Gain: -0.40%
Avg Winner: +4.58%
Avg Loser: -2.88%
Best: +15.56%
Worst: -8.05%
Trades: 11/22

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 51.5%
Avg Gain: +0.36%
Avg Winner: +4.42%
Avg Loser: -3.96%
Best: +19.93%
Worst: -9.82%
Trades: 17/16

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +3.43%
Best MFE: +20.67%
Avg Time to MFE: 111 min

On average, GEO alerts reach +3.43% profit potential within 111 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.16%
Worst MAE: -3.49%
Avg Time to MAE: 7 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.16%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.95:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.95x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 33 alerts, GEO typically reaches +3.43% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 2.7% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 33
Gap Up % 36.4%
Avg Gap +0.04%
Best Gap +3.85%

🏭 Sector Comparison: GENERAL BLDG CONTRACTORS - RESIDENTIAL BLDGS

How GEO compares to 2 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
GEO: -0.15% Sector: +0.03% -0.19%
EOD Gain
GEO: +0.36% Sector: -0.52% +0.88%
Avg MFE
GEO: +3.43% Sector: +2.53% +0.90%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical GEO alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-01-21 09:25:53 $35.38 +2.35% -2.44% -4.04% -2.19% -1.44% +3.05% -0.17% +1.24% WIN
2024-11-12 09:29:07 $25.69 -1.68% -1.78% -0.74% -2.35% -2.49% +1.99% +0.35% +1.25% LOSS
2024-11-11 09:26:52 $26.4 +3.75% +1.36% +2.12% +3.71% +0.30% +5.61% +0.06% +2.27% WIN
2024-11-08 09:25:22 $24.99 -0.75% +1.42% -2.59% -1.64% +1.48% +3.56% -1.76% -0.12% LOSS
2024-11-07 09:27:15 $20.37 +5.06% +10.61% +12.37% +15.56% +19.93% +20.67% -1.82% -1.33% WIN
2024-11-06 09:26:25 $19.25 +1.30% +3.17% +1.30% +6.99% +11.69% +11.90% -1.14% +0.47% WIN
2024-11-01 09:28:07 $15.49 -1.55% -1.36% -0.84% -2.39% -6.71% -0.19% -1.68% -1.23% LOSS
2024-07-15 09:26:44 $16.9 +2.84% +4.71% +2.84% +3.99% +3.14% +5.33% +0.06% +3.85% WIN
2024-06-28 09:26:22 $14.27 -2.03% -0.42% -0.60% -1.58% +0.63% +1.61% -0.91% - LOSS
2024-05-07 09:26:23 $13.79 +1.09% -0.36% -2.57% -1.63% -1.16% +1.31% -1.38% -0.94% WIN
2024-02-15 09:29:13 $12.0 -1.92% -0.94% -5.58% -3.00% -1.75% +1.87% -3.33% +1.00% LOSS
2024-02-05 09:27:56 $11.69 -1.28% -2.40% -2.31% -3.76% -2.05% +0.86% -1.88% -1.88% LOSS
2023-11-07 09:28:00 $8.45 +2.25% +2.31% +6.39% +9.59% +11.72% +12.96% -1.42% -0.83% WIN
2023-10-02 09:25:00 $8.48 +0.12% +2.00% -0.12% +0.53% +1.42% +4.60% - +1.18% WIN
2023-06-27 09:27:00 $7.11 +0.28% +0.14% -0.84% -0.07% +1.41% +3.23% -1.05% +0.56% WIN
2023-05-17 09:29:00 $8.36 -0.06% - -0.54% -1.38% -0.24% +1.20% -1.61% +0.24% LOSS
2023-05-10 09:25:00 $8.93 -0.34% -1.34% -2.02% -4.48% -3.58% - - -0.56% LOSS
2023-05-09 09:25:00 $8.31 - -0.30% +4.12% +0.24% +4.93% +5.54% -1.45% -0.72% -
2023-02-21 09:28:00 $9.34 -0.85% +0.11% +0.05% -0.16% +0.43% +1.39% -1.28% -0.11% LOSS
2023-02-14 09:28:00 $11.1 -3.69% -6.13% -2.84% -4.32% -9.82% +1.53% - - LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 51.5% Baseline on GEO

The 51.5% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push GEO's performance to 75%+.

Optimize GEO Strategy →

Why Analyze GEO with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for GEO. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, GEO historically offers an average upside of +3.43% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 GEO Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 51.5%, GEO shows neutral behavior, suggesting the need for additional volume confirmation.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show GEO performs best on the EOD (End of Day) timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.36%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.