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LKQ Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 18 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2023-02-06 → 2025-02-06

⚠️ Small sample size (18 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Oct 03, 2003 🔗 www.lkqcorp.com
💰 Market Cap: $8.71B 👥 Employees: 47,000
Since forming in 1998 to consolidate the auto salvage business in the United States, LKQ has developed into a leading distributor of aftermarket and recycled auto parts with around 1,500 facilities across North America and Europe. The company primarily sells into the professional channel and offers an assortment of collision and mechanical parts to both body shops and mechanical repair shops. It also continues to operate more than 70 LKQ pick-your-part junkyards. Separate from the self-service business, LKQ usually purchases around 250,000 salvage vehicles annually that are used to extract vehicle parts for resale.
📊
18
Total Alerts
🎯
66.7%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
-0.00%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+0.92%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 66.7%
Avg Gain: -0.00%
Avg Winner: +0.46%
Avg Loser: -0.94%
Best: +1.39%
Worst: -1.97%
Trades: 12/6

15MIN

Win Rate: 55.6%
Avg Gain: +0.05%
Avg Winner: +0.63%
Avg Loser: -0.66%
Best: +1.33%
Worst: -1.31%
Trades: 10/8

30MIN

Win Rate: 55.6%
Avg Gain: +0.12%
Avg Winner: +0.78%
Avg Loser: -0.69%
Best: +1.71%
Worst: -1.42%
Trades: 10/8

60MIN

Win Rate: 44.4%
Avg Gain: +0.06%
Avg Winner: +0.77%
Avg Loser: -0.63%
Best: +1.59%
Worst: -1.51%
Trades: 8/8

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 44.4%
Avg Gain: -0.17%
Avg Winner: +0.75%
Avg Loser: -0.90%
Best: +1.54%
Worst: -1.84%
Trades: 8/10

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +0.92%
Best MFE: +2.18%
Avg Time to MFE: 87 min

On average, LKQ alerts reach +0.92% profit potential within 87 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.23%
Worst MAE: -1.97%
Avg Time to MAE: 4 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.23%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

3.95:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 3.95x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 18 alerts, LKQ typically reaches +0.92% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 0.7% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 18
Gap Up % 55.6%
Avg Gap +0.11%
Best Gap +1.42%

🏭 Sector Comparison: WHOLESALE-MOTOR VEHICLES & MOTOR VEHICLE PARTS & SUPPLIES

How LKQ compares to 2 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
LKQ: -0.00% Sector: -0.19% +0.19%
EOD Gain
LKQ: -0.17% Sector: +365.84% -366.00%
Avg MFE
LKQ: +0.92% Sector: +7.95% -7.03%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical LKQ alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-06 09:26:13 $38.06 +0.24% +0.47% +0.37% -0.29% -1.81% +0.76% -0.79% -0.34% WIN
2024-04-05 09:26:07 $51.12 -0.20% +0.59% +0.29% - +0.68% +0.78% -0.45% +0.27% LOSS
2024-03-07 09:29:40 $51.89 +0.04% +0.15% -0.02% - -0.79% +0.25% -0.42% -0.15% WIN
2023-11-29 09:28:00 $44.73 +0.19% -0.42% +0.16% -0.60% -0.76% +0.89% +0.22% +0.89% WIN
2023-11-08 09:27:00 $44.99 -0.44% -0.87% -0.50% -0.84% -1.84% -0.20% -0.47% -0.20% LOSS
2023-09-28 09:27:00 $48.79 +0.10% +0.18% +0.43% +0.43% +1.54% +2.05% -0.10% -0.10% WIN
2023-06-13 09:27:00 $54.56 +0.39% +0.53% +1.21% +1.12% +0.62% +1.45% +0.11% +0.11% WIN
2023-06-01 09:25:00 $52.75 +0.38% -0.51% -1.42% -0.57% -1.27% +0.61% +0.36% +0.36% WIN
2023-05-12 09:29:00 $57.06 -0.47% -0.58% -0.46% -0.32% -0.86% -0.16% -0.66% -0.46% LOSS
2023-03-21 09:26:00 $54.75 +1.04% +1.33% +1.34% +1.24% +0.86% +1.68% +0.93% +0.93% WIN
2023-03-07 09:27:00 $57.54 +0.36% +0.54% +1.09% +0.99% +0.07% +1.33% -0.17% +0.16% WIN
2023-03-03 09:28:00 $57.89 +0.35% +0.35% +0.29% +0.17% +0.76% +1.11% +0.19% +0.79% WIN
2023-02-27 09:26:00 $57.72 +1.39% +0.81% +0.88% +0.44% -0.49% +1.63% +1.63% +1.42% WIN
2023-02-22 09:26:00 $56.0 +0.66% +1.32% +1.71% +1.59% +1.25% +2.18% +0.41% +0.41% WIN
2023-02-16 09:25:00 $57.91 -1.62% -0.98% -0.88% -0.81% -0.02% +0.54% -1.74% -1.23% LOSS
2023-02-10 09:25:00 $56.03 -0.91% -0.42% -0.11% +0.18% +0.25% +0.52% -0.91% -0.55% LOSS
2023-02-07 09:25:00 $56.39 -1.97% -1.31% -1.15% -1.51% -0.57% +0.01% -1.97% -0.89% LOSS
2023-02-06 09:29:00 $56.74 +0.39% -0.19% -1.00% -0.07% -0.62% +1.20% -0.37% +0.49% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ LKQ Shows Negative Expectancy

Despite a 66.7% win rate, LKQ has -0.00% average expectancy because losses outweigh wins. Use the app to find filters that improve the win size or reduce loss size, making LKQ profitable.

🔧 Fix LKQ Risk/Reward →

Why Analyze LKQ with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for LKQ. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, LKQ historically offers an average upside of +0.92% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 LKQ Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 66.7%, LKQ shows strong follow-through, making it a prime candidate for momentum strategies.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: LKQ shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 5MIN at -0.00%). This suggests LKQ is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.