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MRCY Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 2 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2023-06-26 → 2024-05-01

⚠️ Small sample size (2 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Mercury Systems Inc. ELECTRONIC COMPONENTS & ACCESSORIES (SIC 3670)
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Jan 30, 1998 🔗 www.mrcy.com
💰 Market Cap: $5.95B 👥 Employees: 2,175
Mercury Systems Inc is a commercial technology company serving the aerospace and defense industry. The company envisions, creates, and delivers secure open architecture solutions powering a broad range of mission-critical applications in challenging and demanding environments. Its Mercury Processing Platform spans the full breadth of signal processing from radio frequency front end to the human-machine interface to convert meaningful data, gathered in remote and hostile environments, into critical decisions. The company manufactures components, products, modules, and subsystems and sells to defense prime contractors, the U.S. government, original equipment manufacturers, and commercial aerospace companies. Geographically, it derives maximum revenue from the United States.
📊
2
Total Alerts
🎯
100.0%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
+3.14%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+10.02%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 100.0%
Avg Gain: +3.14%
Avg Winner: +3.14%
Avg Loser: +0.00%
Best: +4.71%
Worst: +1.57%
Trades: 2/0

15MIN

Win Rate: 100.0%
Avg Gain: +6.30%
Avg Winner: +6.30%
Avg Loser: +0.00%
Best: +10.88%
Worst: +1.71%
Trades: 2/0

30MIN

Win Rate: 100.0%
Avg Gain: +5.79%
Avg Winner: +5.79%
Avg Loser: +0.00%
Best: +10.61%
Worst: +0.98%
Trades: 2/0

60MIN

Win Rate: 100.0%
Avg Gain: +5.57%
Avg Winner: +5.57%
Avg Loser: +0.00%
Best: +10.50%
Worst: +0.64%
Trades: 2/0

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 100.0%
Avg Gain: +5.73%
Avg Winner: +5.73%
Avg Loser: +0.00%
Best: +9.19%
Worst: +2.28%
Trades: 2/0

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +10.02%
Best MFE: +15.08%
Avg Time to MFE: 177 min

On average, MRCY alerts reach +10.02% profit potential within 177 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.06%
Worst MAE: -0.29%
Avg Time to MAE: 0 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.06%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

178.6:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 178.6x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 2 alerts, MRCY typically reaches +10.02% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 8.0% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 2
Gap Up % 50.0%
Avg Gap +0.21%
Best Gap +0.52%

🏭 Sector Comparison: ELECTRONIC COMPONENTS & ACCESSORIES

How MRCY compares to 5 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
MRCY: +3.14% Sector: -0.63% +3.77%
EOD Gain
MRCY: +5.73% Sector: +198890.48% -198884.75%
Avg MFE
MRCY: +10.02% Sector: +8.91% +1.11%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical MRCY alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-05-01 09:29:14 $28.02 +1.57% +1.71% +0.98% +0.64% +2.28% +4.96% -0.29% -0.11% WIN
2023-06-26 09:29:00 $28.85 +4.71% +10.88% +10.61% +10.50% +9.19% +15.08% +0.17% +0.52% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

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🚀 Beat the 100.0% Baseline on MRCY

The 100.0% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push MRCY's performance to 75%+.

Optimize MRCY Strategy →

Why Analyze MRCY with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for MRCY. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, MRCY historically offers an average upside of +10.02% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 MRCY Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 100.0%, MRCY shows strong follow-through, making it a prime candidate for momentum strategies.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show MRCY performs best on the 5MIN timeframe (Avg Gain: +3.14%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.