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MTG Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 2 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-08-16 → 2022-11-21

⚠️ Small sample size (2 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

MGIC Investment Corp. SURETY INSURANCE (SIC 6351)
📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Aug 07, 1991 🔗 www.mgic.com
💰 Market Cap: $5.88B 👥 Employees: 555
MGIC Investment Corp provides private mortgage insurance, other mortgage credit risk management solutions, and ancillary services. The insurance premiums that these customers pay for the protection accounts for close to majority of the company's total revenue. Investment income accounts for the remaining revenue. The company sells its insurance products in all states of the United States and in Puerto Rico. Its greatest exposure is in California, Florida, Texas, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Illinois, Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia and New York.
📊
2
Total Alerts
🎯
100.0%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
+0.36%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+1.53%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 100.0%
Avg Gain: +0.36%
Avg Winner: +0.36%
Avg Loser: +0.00%
Best: +0.45%
Worst: +0.26%
Trades: 2/0

15MIN

Win Rate: 100.0%
Avg Gain: +0.56%
Avg Winner: +0.56%
Avg Loser: +0.00%
Best: +0.79%
Worst: +0.33%
Trades: 2/0

30MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: +0.44%
Avg Winner: +0.91%
Avg Loser: -0.03%
Best: +0.91%
Worst: -0.03%
Trades: 1/1

60MIN

Win Rate: 100.0%
Avg Gain: +0.11%
Avg Winner: +0.11%
Avg Loser: +0.00%
Best: +0.19%
Worst: +0.03%
Trades: 2/0

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 100.0%
Avg Gain: +1.39%
Avg Winner: +1.39%
Avg Loser: +0.00%
Best: +1.65%
Worst: +1.13%
Trades: 2/0

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +1.53%
Best MFE: +1.85%
Avg Time to MFE: 381 min

On average, MTG alerts reach +1.53% profit potential within 381 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.20%
Worst MAE: -0.33%
Avg Time to MAE: 36 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.20%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

7.53:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 7.53x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 2 alerts, MTG typically reaches +1.53% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.2% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 2
Gap Up % 50.0%
Avg Gap -0.06%
Best Gap +0.15%

🏭 Sector Comparison: SURETY INSURANCE

How MTG compares to 4 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
MTG: +0.36% Sector: -0.19% +0.55%
EOD Gain
MTG: +1.39% Sector: +2.47% -1.08%
Avg MFE
MTG: +1.53% Sector: +4.23% -2.70%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical MTG alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2022-11-21 09:25:00 $13.26 +0.45% +0.79% +0.91% +0.19% +1.13% +1.21% -0.08% +0.15% WIN
2022-08-16 09:25:00 $15.14 +0.26% +0.33% -0.03% +0.03% +1.65% +1.85% -0.33% -0.26% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 100.0% Baseline on MTG

The 100.0% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push MTG's performance to 75%+.

Optimize MTG Strategy →

Why Analyze MTG with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for MTG. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, MTG historically offers an average upside of +1.53% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 MTG Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 100.0%, MTG shows strong follow-through, making it a prime candidate for momentum strategies.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show MTG performs best on the 5MIN timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.36%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.