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OSUR Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 3 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-06 → 2023-02-15

⚠️ Small sample size (3 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Nov 17, 1986 🔗 www.orasure.com
💰 Market Cap: $191.5M 👥 Employees: 501
OraSure Technologies Inc is a medical devices company that develops, manufactures, and distributes oral fluid diagnostic and collection devices. Its reportable segments are diagnostics and molecular solutions. The diagnostics segment produces rapid oral diagnostic tests and specimen collection devices for infectious diseases such as HIV and HCV. The molecular solutions segment specializes in kits used to collect, stabilize, and transport genetic material samples for molecular testing of both hereditary diseases and infectious diseases, such as COVID-19. The company gets majority of its sales from the molecular solutions business, derived mainly from customers in the United States.
📊
3
Total Alerts
🎯
33.3%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
-1.31%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+1.17%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 33.3%
Avg Gain: -1.31%
Avg Winner: +0.13%
Avg Loser: -2.03%
Best: +0.13%
Worst: -3.36%
Trades: 1/2

15MIN

Win Rate: 33.3%
Avg Gain: -2.92%
Avg Winner: +0.25%
Avg Loser: -4.50%
Best: +0.25%
Worst: -7.77%
Trades: 1/2

30MIN

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -5.62%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -5.62%
Best: -0.21%
Worst: -9.45%
Trades: 0/3

60MIN

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -5.46%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -5.46%
Best: -0.38%
Worst: -10.56%
Trades: 0/3

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -4.42%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -4.42%
Best: -1.26%
Worst: -9.03%
Trades: 0/3

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +1.17%
Best MFE: +2.63%
Avg Time to MFE: 6 min

On average, OSUR alerts reach +1.17% profit potential within 6 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.55%
Worst MAE: -1.75%
Avg Time to MAE: 4 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.55%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

0.76:1

Challenging risk/reward - consider tighter stops.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 3 alerts, OSUR typically reaches +1.17% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 0.9% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 3
Gap Up % 66.7%
Avg Gap +0.58%
Best Gap +2.28%

🏭 Sector Comparison: SURGICAL & MEDICAL INSTRUMENTS & APPARATUS

How OSUR compares to 88 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
OSUR: -1.31% Sector: -0.34% -0.97%
EOD Gain
OSUR: -4.42% Sector: +38960.46% -38964.89%
Avg MFE
OSUR: +1.17% Sector: +8.67% -7.50%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical OSUR alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2023-02-15 09:25:00 $5.7 -0.70% -1.23% -7.19% -5.44% -2.98% +2.63% -1.75% +2.28% LOSS
2022-05-25 09:25:00 $4.76 -3.36% -7.77% -9.45% -10.56% -9.03% -0.63% -1.26% -1.05% LOSS
2022-01-06 09:25:00 $7.95 +0.13% +0.25% -0.21% -0.38% -1.26% +1.51% -1.64% +0.50% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ OSUR Shows Negative Expectancy

With 33.3% win rate and -1.31% average gain, OSUR alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider OSUR for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze OSUR with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for OSUR. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, OSUR historically offers an average upside of +1.17% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 OSUR Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 33.3%, OSUR shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests OSUR may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: OSUR shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 5MIN at -1.31%). This suggests OSUR is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.