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RAIL Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 1 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-03-22 → 2022-03-22

⚠️ Small sample size (1 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

FreightCar America, Inc. RAILROAD EQUIPMENT (SIC 3743)
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Apr 06, 2005 🔗 www.freightcaramerica.com
💰 Market Cap: $209.5M 👥 Employees: 2,030
FreightCar America Inc is a manufacturer of railcars and components, serving diverse transportation needs in North America. The company designs and produces a wide range of railcar types, including box cars, hoppers, covered hoppers, gondolas, and flat cars for both intermodal and non-intermodal freight. The company has two segments: The Manufacturing segment encompasses new railcar manufacturing, used railcar sales, leasing, and rebuilds, while the Aftermarket segment includes the selling of forged, cast and fabricated railcar parts and supplies for all railcar types, and provides aftermarket services including safety training, railcar inspections, and preventative maintenance. The company's revenue is predominantly derived from its Manufacturing segment.
📊
1
Total Alerts
🎯
100.0%
Win Rate (15MIN)
💰
+0.21%
Avg Gain (15MIN)
🚀
+17.77%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -5.54%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -5.54%
Best: -5.54%
Worst: -5.54%
Trades: 0/1

15MIN

Win Rate: 100.0%
Avg Gain: +0.21%
Avg Winner: +0.21%
Avg Loser: +0.00%
Best: +0.21%
Worst: +0.21%
Trades: 1/0

30MIN

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -1.45%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -1.45%
Best: -1.45%
Worst: -1.45%
Trades: 0/1

60MIN

Win Rate: 100.0%
Avg Gain: +8.68%
Avg Winner: +8.68%
Avg Loser: +0.00%
Best: +8.68%
Worst: +8.68%
Trades: 1/0

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 100.0%
Avg Gain: +11.78%
Avg Winner: +11.78%
Avg Loser: +0.00%
Best: +11.78%
Worst: +11.78%
Trades: 1/0

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +17.77%
Best MFE: +17.77%
Avg Time to MFE: 269 min

On average, RAIL alerts reach +17.77% profit potential within 269 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -5.99%
Worst MAE: -5.99%
Avg Time to MAE: 5 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 5.99%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.97:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.97x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 1 alerts, RAIL typically reaches +17.77% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 14.2% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 1
Gap Up % 0.0%
Avg Gap -0.41%
Best Gap -0.41%

🏭 Sector Comparison: RAILROAD EQUIPMENT

How RAIL compares to 4 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
RAIL: -5.54% Sector: -0.33% -5.20%
EOD Gain
RAIL: +11.78% Sector: +0.46% +11.32%
Avg MFE
RAIL: +17.77% Sector: +2.34% +15.43%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical RAIL alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2022-03-22 09:25:00 $4.84 -5.54% +0.21% -1.45% +8.68% +11.78% +17.77% -5.99% -0.41% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 100.0% Baseline on RAIL

The 100.0% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push RAIL's performance to 75%+.

Optimize RAIL Strategy →

Why Analyze RAIL with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for RAIL. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, RAIL historically offers an average upside of +17.77% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 RAIL Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 100.0%, RAIL shows strong follow-through, making it a prime candidate for momentum strategies.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show RAIL performs best on the 15MIN timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.21%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.