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SDST Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 7 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2024-07-09 → 2025-02-10

⚠️ Small sample size (7 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Jul 09, 2024 🔗 www.stardust-power.com
💰 Market Cap: $45.5M 👥 Employees: 8
Stardust Power Inc is developing a lithium refinery at its Facility in Muskogee, Oklahoma, with planned capacity of producing up to 50,000 metric tons per annum of BGLC once fully operational. The company will source lithium brine feedstock from various suppliers and may make investments upstream to secure additional feedstock. The Company seeks to sell its products to electric vehicle (EV) manufacturers as the primary market, with potential applications in other areas such as battery manufacturers, the U.S. military, and original equipment manufacturers (OEMs).
📊
7
Total Alerts
🎯
28.6%
Win Rate (60MIN)
💰
-9.99%
Avg Gain (60MIN)
🚀
+9.08%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 14.3%
Avg Gain: -3.37%
Avg Winner: +0.32%
Avg Loser: -3.98%
Best: +0.32%
Worst: -11.61%
Trades: 1/6

15MIN

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -7.11%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -7.11%
Best: -1.79%
Worst: -17.90%
Trades: 0/7

30MIN

Win Rate: 14.3%
Avg Gain: -7.73%
Avg Winner: +0.89%
Avg Loser: -9.16%
Best: +0.89%
Worst: -17.90%
Trades: 1/6

60MIN

Win Rate: 28.6%
Avg Gain: -9.99%
Avg Winner: +3.17%
Avg Loser: -15.25%
Best: +3.66%
Worst: -26.42%
Trades: 2/5

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 28.6%
Avg Gain: -10.72%
Avg Winner: +9.73%
Avg Loser: -18.89%
Best: +14.29%
Worst: -46.29%
Trades: 2/5

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +9.08%
Best MFE: +23.40%
Avg Time to MFE: 46 min

On average, SDST alerts reach +9.08% profit potential within 46 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -5.75%
Worst MAE: -21.36%
Avg Time to MAE: 3 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 5.75%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

1.58:1

Good risk/reward - favorable for momentum trading.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 7 alerts, SDST typically reaches +9.08% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 7.3% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 7
Gap Up % 57.1%
Avg Gap +1.16%
Best Gap +3.57%

🏭 Sector Comparison: PRIMARY SMELTING & REFINING OF NONFERROUS METALS

How SDST compares to 2 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
SDST: -3.37% Sector: -1.69% -1.68%
EOD Gain
SDST: -10.72% Sector: -1.96% -8.76%
Avg MFE
SDST: +9.08% Sector: +8.69% +0.39%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical SDST alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-10 09:25:40 $0.71 +0.32% -3.77% -2.12% +3.66% +5.17% +23.40% -3.80% -0.43% WIN
2025-02-04 09:25:23 $0.99 -3.12% -5.05% -16.17% -13.09% -11.12% +1.01% +1.01% +1.01% LOSS
2025-01-27 09:28:20 $1.12 -1.79% -1.79% +0.89% +2.68% +14.29% +20.54% -6.25% +3.57% LOSS
2025-01-24 09:26:17 $1.3 -1.54% -5.54% -9.23% -8.08% -7.69% +2.31% -1.54% - LOSS
2025-01-23 09:25:00 $2.29 -2.84% -17.90% -17.90% -26.42% -46.29% +2.62% -4.37% +2.62% LOSS
2024-12-30 09:28:27 $5.3 -3.02% -2.26% -5.66% -11.35% -14.91% +3.77% -3.96% +2.08% LOSS
2024-07-09 09:28:33 $11.89 -11.61% -13.46% -3.90% -17.33% -14.47% +9.92% -21.36% -0.76% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ SDST Shows Negative Expectancy

With 28.6% win rate and -9.99% average gain, SDST alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider SDST for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze SDST with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for SDST. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, SDST historically offers an average upside of +9.08% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 SDST Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 28.6%, SDST shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests SDST may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: SDST shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 60MIN at -9.99%). This suggests SDST is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.