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Ticker Report — Active Last signal ·

$SMCZ

Trade-Ideas alerts 48.1% at EOD n=79 2026-02-04 → 2026-10-02

⚠ SMALL SAMPLE · 79 alerts only. Statistics may have high variance — interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Defiance Daily Target 2X Short SMCI ETF
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Mar 31, 2025
Total alerts
79
Trade-Ideas signal history
Win rate · EOD
48.1%
Best timeframe baseline
Avg gain · EOD
-1.72%
Per-alert expectancy
Avg MFE
+5.74%
Max potential excursion

Practice trading SMCZ on historical setups — browse all patterns across all tickers →

Playable SMCZ setups

Historical SMCZ setups in the simulator. Click to see chart, edge stats, and community discussion.

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 45.6%
Avg Gain: -0.56%
Avg Winner: +1.45%
Avg Loser: -2.24%
Best: +3.95%
Worst: -7.54%
Trades: 36/43

15MIN

Win Rate: 46.8%
Avg Gain: -1.01%
Avg Winner: +2.62%
Avg Loser: -4.42%
Best: +6.76%
Worst: -14.01%
Trades: 37/40

30MIN

Win Rate: 44.3%
Avg Gain: -1.30%
Avg Winner: +3.58%
Avg Loser: -5.31%
Best: +11.08%
Worst: -17.17%
Trades: 35/43

60MIN

Win Rate: 44.3%
Avg Gain: -1.48%
Avg Winner: +4.43%
Avg Loser: -6.18%
Best: +15.66%
Worst: -20.21%
Trades: 35/44

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 48.1%
Avg Gain: -1.72%
Avg Winner: +6.05%
Avg Loser: -8.92%
Best: +22.21%
Worst: -30.82%
Trades: 38/41

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +5.74%
Best MFE: +22.53%
Avg Time to MFE: 120 min

On average, SMCZ alerts reach +5.74% profit potential within 120 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -2.54%
Worst MAE: -20.19%
Avg Time to MAE: 12 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 2.54%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.26:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.26x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 79 alerts, SMCZ typically reaches +5.74% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 4.6% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 79
Gap Up % 38.0%
Avg Gap -0.32%
Best Gap +3.54%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical SMCZ alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2026-10-02 09:25:00 $4.24 +1.65% +0.00% -3.77% -7.78% -4.25% +2.36% -0.47% +0.00% WIN
2026-10-01 09:25:00 $4.64 +1.08% -1.07% +0.86% +3.23% -4.74% +4.09% -2.05% +0.86% WIN
2026-09-30 09:25:00 $4.4 -0.45% +4.77% +6.14% +6.36% +5.00% +8.30% -2.95% -0.45% LOSS
2026-09-29 09:25:00 $4.37 -0.92% +0.23% -0.15% +1.14% +6.18% +7.09% -1.60% -1.14% LOSS
2026-09-28 09:25:00 $4.33 -1.85% +0.46% +1.15% +3.58% +3.23% +7.32% -1.85% -1.15% LOSS
2026-09-25 09:25:00 $4.47 -0.45% -3.24% -5.93% -4.47% -6.04% +0.89% -0.89% +0.22% LOSS
2026-09-24 09:25:00 $4.84 -0.62% -2.69% -0.83% +0.41% -4.75% +2.69% -3.31% +0.41% LOSS
2026-09-23 09:25:00 $4.49 -0.45% +3.12% +0.67% +2.45% +2.67% +6.01% -2.71% -2.00% LOSS
2026-09-22 09:25:00 $4.67 +0.64% +0.21% +1.02% +1.94% -1.71% +3.85% -0.86% +0.21% WIN
2026-09-21 09:25:00 $4.73 +2.75% +1.48% -1.90% -3.28% -2.53% +4.23% -2.75% +0.42% WIN
2026-09-18 09:25:00 $4.92 +3.28% +4.88% +5.18% +7.72% +4.88% +9.00% -0.41% -0.41% WIN
2026-09-17 09:25:00 $5.66 -0.71% -4.26% -7.24% -8.13% -13.60% +0.88% -0.71% -0.18% LOSS
2026-09-16 09:25:00 $6.44 -0.62% -4.66% -6.06% -4.35% -6.21% +2.17% -7.45% -0.47% LOSS
2026-09-14 09:25:00 $5.94 +1.85% +1.52% +0.00% +0.34% +3.54% +4.88% -0.67% +0.25% WIN
2026-09-11 09:25:00 $6.03 -0.66% -0.33% -2.82% -12.19% -12.60% +1.16% -1.33% +0.00% LOSS
2026-09-09 09:25:00 $2.75 -0.18% +1.09% -0.37% -1.09% +3.64% +4.36% -2.09% -1.09% LOSS
2026-09-08 09:25:00 $2.75 -2.18% -5.46% -5.46% -6.55% -2.91% +0.36% -0.73% +0.36% LOSS
2026-09-04 09:25:00 $2.97 +1.68% -2.69% -3.37% -6.33% -7.07% +2.34% -0.51% +0.67% WIN
2026-09-03 09:25:00 $3.29 +0.91% +0.91% -0.15% -0.91% -7.42% +3.65% -0.61% -0.61% WIN
2026-09-02 09:25:00 $3.11 +0.96% +0.31% +7.40% +6.75% +2.89% +10.87% -1.61% -0.80% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠ SMCZ Shows Negative Expectancy

With 48.1% win rate and -1.72% average gain, SMCZ alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider SMCZ for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze SMCZ with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for SMCZ. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, SMCZ historically offers an average upside of +5.74% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 SMCZ Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 48.1%, SMCZ shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests SMCZ may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: SMCZ shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: EOD (End of Day) at -1.72%). This suggests SMCZ is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.