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TLK Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 37 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-27 → 2025-02-04

⚠️ Small sample size (37 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia
📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Nov 14, 1995 🔗 www.telkom.co.id
💰 Market Cap: $22.55B 👥 Employees: 19,695
PT Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk is the integrated telecommunications provider in Indonesia. The company is focusing on dividing business into 3 Digital Business Domains namely, digital connectivity, digital platform, and digital services. It also provides a wide range of other communication services, including telephone network, interconnection services, multimedia, data and internet communication-related services, satellite transponder leasing, leased line, intelligent network and related services, cable television, and VoIP services. The group derives revenue from product lines: Mobile, Consumer, Enterprise, WIB and Others.
📊
37
Total Alerts
🎯
44.4%
Win Rate (15MIN)
💰
-0.23%
Avg Gain (15MIN)
🚀
+0.56%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 41.2%
Avg Gain: -0.27%
Avg Winner: +0.61%
Avg Loser: -0.89%
Best: +1.89%
Worst: -3.96%
Trades: 14/20

15MIN

Win Rate: 44.4%
Avg Gain: -0.23%
Avg Winner: +0.73%
Avg Loser: -1.06%
Best: +2.21%
Worst: -4.46%
Trades: 16/19

30MIN

Win Rate: 43.2%
Avg Gain: -0.29%
Avg Winner: +0.79%
Avg Loser: -1.11%
Best: +2.47%
Worst: -4.48%
Trades: 16/21

60MIN

Win Rate: 43.2%
Avg Gain: -0.29%
Avg Winner: +0.85%
Avg Loser: -1.17%
Best: +2.81%
Worst: -4.60%
Trades: 16/21

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 35.1%
Avg Gain: -0.31%
Avg Winner: +1.35%
Avg Loser: -1.26%
Best: +2.99%
Worst: -4.24%
Trades: 13/23

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +0.56%
Best MFE: +3.16%
Avg Time to MFE: 104 min

On average, TLK alerts reach +0.56% profit potential within 104 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.56%
Worst MAE: -4.68%
Avg Time to MAE: 12 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.56%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

0.99:1

Challenging risk/reward - consider tighter stops.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 37 alerts, TLK typically reaches +0.56% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 0.4% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 37
Gap Up % 37.8%
Avg Gap -0.27%
Best Gap +1.47%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical TLK alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-04 09:28:46 $15.96 +0.60% +0.56% +0.47% +0.22% - +0.94% -0.81% -0.81% WIN
2025-02-03 09:27:51 $15.77 -1.01% -1.05% -1.40% -0.19% -0.38% +0.51% -0.13% -0.06% LOSS
2025-01-31 09:27:55 $16.34 -0.15% +0.06% -0.25% +0.06% -1.96% +0.86% -0.42% -0.24% LOSS
2025-01-30 09:26:26 $16.77 -2.27% -2.24% -2.68% -2.33% -2.80% -0.78% -1.25% -0.78% LOSS
2024-11-25 09:27:37 $17.93 -3.96% -4.46% -4.48% -4.60% -4.24% -3.85% -4.68% -4.18% LOSS
2024-11-22 09:28:19 $17.13 -0.06% -0.40% -0.58% -0.76% -0.29% -0.06% -0.58% -0.47% LOSS
2024-11-19 09:29:05 $17.23 -0.70% -0.70% -1.04% -1.60% -1.10% +1.22% -0.58% +0.93% LOSS
2024-09-11 09:26:51 $19.7 +0.25% -0.10% -0.03% -0.48% +1.88% +1.93% -0.66% -0.66% WIN
2024-09-10 09:25:54 $19.72 -0.18% - -0.35% -0.15% -0.81% +0.51% +0.51% +0.51% LOSS
2024-08-30 09:29:15 $19.62 +0.36% +0.25% +0.20% +0.03% -0.10% +0.41% +0.10% +0.10% WIN
2024-08-28 09:27:06 $19.11 - +1.33% +1.39% +1.31% +1.26% +1.62% +1.10% +1.10% -
2024-08-26 09:27:47 $19.25 - +0.34% +0.83% +0.87% +0.57% +0.94% -0.05% -0.05% -
2024-08-21 09:27:01 $19.27 -0.26% -0.49% -0.57% -0.88% -1.25% +0.36% -0.36% +0.36% LOSS
2024-08-19 09:29:39 $18.86 +0.03% +0.11% +0.42% +0.56% +1.75% +2.86% -0.16% -0.16% WIN
2024-07-18 09:29:42 $20.26 -0.35% -0.37% -0.32% -0.44% -2.22% +0.32% -0.74% -0.74% LOSS
2024-07-17 09:26:11 $19.78 +1.44% +1.69% +2.02% +2.35% +2.63% +2.68% +0.18% +0.51% WIN
2024-05-23 09:26:50 $18.19 +0.77% +0.66% +0.47% +0.41% +0.38% +0.82% +0.11% +0.77% WIN
2024-05-07 09:28:52 $19.04 +1.89% +2.21% +2.47% +2.81% +2.52% +3.07% +1.47% +1.47% WIN
2024-05-06 09:25:33 $19.28 -0.57% -0.21% -0.03% +0.29% +0.73% +0.73% -0.78% -0.41% LOSS
2024-04-25 09:28:46 $19.1 -1.44% -1.13% -1.75% -1.52% -1.31% -0.47% -0.92% -0.52% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ TLK Shows Negative Expectancy

With 44.4% win rate and -0.23% average gain, TLK alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider TLK for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze TLK with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for TLK. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, TLK historically offers an average upside of +0.56% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 TLK Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 44.4%, TLK shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests TLK may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: TLK shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 15MIN at -0.23%). This suggests TLK is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.