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TLYS Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 1 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-03-11 → 2022-03-11

⚠️ Small sample size (1 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: May 04, 2012 🔗 www.tillys.com
💰 Market Cap: $50.6M 👥 Employees: 5,619
Tilly's Inc works as a specialty retailer of casual apparel, footwear, and accessories for young men, young women, boys, and girls. It offers an unparalleled selection of relevant brands, styles, colors, sizes, and price points. It delivers branded fashion, and core styles for tops, outerwear, bottoms, and dresses. It also provides backpacks, hats, sunglasses, headphones, handbags, watches, and jewelry. It markets its products under the brand names of Vans, RVCA, Adidas, Nike SB, and Hurley among others. It operates its stores in malls, lifestyle centers, power centers, community centers, outlet centers, street-front locations, and also through e-commerce.
📊
1
Total Alerts
🎯
100.0%
Win Rate (15MIN)
💰
+0.52%
Avg Gain (15MIN)
🚀
+3.12%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -2.19%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -2.19%
Best: -2.19%
Worst: -2.19%
Trades: 0/1

15MIN

Win Rate: 100.0%
Avg Gain: +0.52%
Avg Winner: +0.52%
Avg Loser: +0.00%
Best: +0.52%
Worst: +0.52%
Trades: 1/0

30MIN

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -0.99%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -0.99%
Best: -0.99%
Worst: -0.99%
Trades: 0/1

60MIN

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -3.54%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -3.54%
Best: -3.54%
Worst: -3.54%
Trades: 0/1

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -3.12%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -3.12%
Best: -3.12%
Worst: -3.12%
Trades: 0/1

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +3.12%
Best MFE: +3.12%
Avg Time to MFE: 13 min

On average, TLYS alerts reach +3.12% profit potential within 13 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -3.54%
Worst MAE: -3.54%
Avg Time to MAE: 6 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 3.54%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

0.88:1

Challenging risk/reward - consider tighter stops.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 1 alerts, TLYS typically reaches +3.12% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 2.5% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 1
Gap Up % 0.0%
Avg Gap -0.42%
Best Gap -0.42%

🏭 Sector Comparison: RETAIL-APPAREL & ACCESSORY STORES

How TLYS compares to 5 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
TLYS: -2.19% Sector: -0.54% -1.65%
EOD Gain
TLYS: -3.12% Sector: +4297776.54% -4297779.67%
Avg MFE
TLYS: +3.12% Sector: +9.39% -6.27%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical TLYS alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2022-03-11 09:25:00 $9.6 -2.19% +0.52% -0.99% -3.54% -3.12% +3.12% -3.54% -0.42% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 100.0% Baseline on TLYS

The 100.0% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push TLYS's performance to 75%+.

Optimize TLYS Strategy →

Why Analyze TLYS with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for TLYS. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, TLYS historically offers an average upside of +3.12% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 TLYS Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 100.0%, TLYS shows strong follow-through, making it a prime candidate for momentum strategies.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show TLYS performs best on the 15MIN timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.52%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.