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USFD Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 4 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-11-25 → 2024-04-08

⚠️ Small sample size (4 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: May 26, 2016 🔗 www.usfoods.com
💰 Market Cap: $18.12B 👥 Employees: 30,000
US Foods Holding Corp is the U.S. food service distributor that distributes food and nonfood products to the healthcare and hospitality industries, restaurants, and education, government facilities, and grocers. It has nearly 250,000 restaurants and foodservice operators with more than 70 locations that provide customers with food offering and a comprehensive suite of e-commerce, technology, and business solutions. The company operates in one business segment in which it markets, sells and distributes fresh, frozen and dry food and non-food products to foodservice customers throughout the U.S.
📊
4
Total Alerts
🎯
100.0%
Win Rate (30MIN)
💰
+0.49%
Avg Gain (30MIN)
🚀
+1.65%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 25.0%
Avg Gain: -0.06%
Avg Winner: +0.22%
Avg Loser: -0.16%
Best: +0.22%
Worst: -0.33%
Trades: 1/3

15MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: +0.04%
Avg Winner: +0.30%
Avg Loser: -0.44%
Best: +0.42%
Worst: -0.44%
Trades: 2/1

30MIN

Win Rate: 100.0%
Avg Gain: +0.49%
Avg Winner: +0.49%
Avg Loser: +0.00%
Best: +1.15%
Worst: +0.13%
Trades: 4/0

60MIN

Win Rate: 100.0%
Avg Gain: +0.79%
Avg Winner: +0.79%
Avg Loser: +0.00%
Best: +1.02%
Worst: +0.48%
Trades: 4/0

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: +0.54%
Avg Winner: +1.19%
Avg Loser: -0.10%
Best: +1.36%
Worst: -0.15%
Trades: 2/2

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +1.65%
Best MFE: +2.13%
Avg Time to MFE: 83 min

On average, USFD alerts reach +1.65% profit potential within 83 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.59%
Worst MAE: -1.15%
Avg Time to MAE: 4 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.59%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.82:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.82x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 4 alerts, USFD typically reaches +1.65% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.3% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 4
Gap Up % 75.0%
Avg Gap -0.01%
Best Gap +0.50%

🏭 Sector Comparison: WHOLESALE-GROCERIES & RELATED PRODUCTS

How USFD compares to 4 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
USFD: -0.06% Sector: +0.13% -0.20%
EOD Gain
USFD: +0.54% Sector: +0.32% +0.23%
Avg MFE
USFD: +1.65% Sector: +2.32% -0.67%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical USFD alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-04-08 09:25:52 $50.6 +0.22% +0.18% +1.15% +1.00% +1.36% +1.78% -0.81% -0.81% WIN
2023-05-23 09:25:00 $39.95 -0.04% - +0.13% +1.02% -0.15% +2.13% -0.05% +0.13% LOSS
2023-03-08 09:25:00 $38.27 -0.10% -0.44% +0.14% +0.48% +1.02% +1.65% -1.15% +0.50% LOSS
2022-11-25 09:25:00 $35.94 -0.33% +0.42% +0.56% +0.64% -0.06% +1.06% -0.33% +0.17% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 100.0% Baseline on USFD

The 100.0% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push USFD's performance to 75%+.

Optimize USFD Strategy →

Why Analyze USFD with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for USFD. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, USFD historically offers an average upside of +1.65% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 USFD Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 100.0%, USFD shows strong follow-through, making it a prime candidate for momentum strategies.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show USFD performs best on the 30MIN timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.49%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.