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$MIMI -20.16% — what the base rate says

$MIMI -20.16% — what the base rate says

Sunday tape review reveals the price of overplaying your hand. $PYPL turned down a $60.50 buyout bid hunting for a richer payout, only for the consortium to walk away and leave the stock down 12.6% at $54. Across the tape, $MIMI showed micro-cap reality with a $2.5M direct offering that dragged shares down 20.2%.

Amateurs spend Sunday building revenge-trade lists for Monday morning. Systematic traders check the probabilities: across 2,153 historical catalyst gap-downs of 20% or more, the stock continues lower and closes red 56% of the time. Sunday is for running base rates, not wishing deals back into existence.

What the data showed

  • $MIMI -20.16% Mint Incorporation Limited · closed red 56% · green 43% (n=2,153) mcap $7M · float 1M shares
  • $PYPL -12.59% PayPal Holdings, Inc. · closed red 54% · green 45% (n=618) mcap $52.6B · float 899M shares · sector: SERVICES-BUSINESS SERVICES, NEC
  • $IREN -12.16% IREN Limited · closed red 53% · green 46% (n=6,903) mcap $14.5B · float 348M shares · sector: FINANCE SERVICES

Pull the historical catalyst gap-down samples on FILTRIX.net before you try catching falling knives on Monday. Discipline > FOMO

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