FILTRIX Logo FILTRIX Find Your Edge →
← All insights

$XHLD -36.48% — what the base rate says

$XHLD -36.48% — what the base rate says

Thursday's after-hours session is treating earnings season like a high-stakes game of blind man's bluff. While macro tourists obsess over tomorrow morning's NFP jobs report, corporate earnings releases are triggering absolute bipolarity. Doximity ($DOCS) rockets 73.48% on fresh Q1 numbers, while CVRx ($CVRX) drops a painful 30.81% off its own release.

Retail chasers assume these massive gap-ups are the start of a multi-day trend. But let's check the historical database: out of 70 prior setups where a stock gapped up 30% or more on earnings, it closed red the following day 63% of the time. The institutional edge is almost always in the fade, not the chase.

Enjoy the post-market fireworks. We'll be reviewing the actual data while the gamblers pray for a friendly jobs report.

What the data showed

  • $XHLD -36.48% TEN Holdings, Inc. · closed red 62% · green 37% (n=641) mcap $11M · float 2M shares · sector: SERVICES-BUSINESS SERVICES, NEC
  • $CVRX -30.81% CVRx, Inc. · closed red 52% · green 47% (n=58)
  • $HCAT -28.57% Health Catalyst, Inc. · closed red 54% · green 45% (n=178) mcap $163M · float 64M shares · sector: SERVICES-COMPUTER PROGRAMMING, DATA PROCESSING, ETC.
  • $BAER -25.44% Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. · closed red 54% · green 45% (n=178) mcap $113M · float 28M shares · sector: SERVICES-BUSINESS SERVICES, NEC
  • $WYHG -25.13% Wing Yip Food Holdings Group Limited · closed red 56% · green 43% (n=2,153) float 2M shares
  • $SFWL -24.18% Shengfeng Development Limited · closed red 59% · green 40% (n=1,421) mcap $69M · float 8M shares
  • $NATR -23.40% Nature's Sunshine Products, Inc. · closed red 56% · green 43% (n=2,153)
  • $TTD -22.75% The Trade Desk, Inc. · closed red 56% · green 43% (n=2,153) mcap $8.6B · float 424M shares · sector: SERVICES-COMPUTER PROGRAMMING, DATA PROCESSING, ETC.
  • $QDEL -22.18% QuidelOrtho Corporation · closed red 54% · green 45% (n=178) mcap $1.2B · float 67M shares · sector: IN VITRO & IN VIVO DIAGNOSTIC SUBSTANCES
  • $ARDX -18.69% Ardelyx, Inc. · closed red 53% · green 46% (n=323) mcap $1.2B · float 245M shares · sector: PHARMACEUTICAL PREPARATIONS

Before you chase the next after-hours earnings gap, run the historical odds on FILTRIX.net to see how often these moves actually hold. Don't let a single green candle dictate your capital allocation. Discipline > FOMO

Find Your Edge on FILTRIX →