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ARDX Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 229 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-03 → 2024-11-11

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Jun 19, 2014 🔗 www.ardelyx.com
💰 Market Cap: $1.89B 👥 Employees: 395
Ardelyx Inc is a biopharmaceutical company developing and commercialize, first-in-class medicines that meet unmet medical needs. It has developed a platform that enabled the discovery of new biological mechanisms and pathways to develop potent and efficacious therapies that minimize the side effects and drug-drug interactions frequently encountered with traditional, systemically absorbed medicines. It product Tenapanor, branded as IBSRELA, is used for the treatment of adults with IBS-C. Tenapanor, branded as XPHOZAH, is used to reduce serum phosphorus in adults with CKD on dialysis as add-on therapy in patients who have an inadequate response to phosphate binders or who are intolerant of any dose of phosphate binder therapy.
📊
229
Total Alerts
🎯
48.2%
Win Rate (EOD)
💰
+0.17%
Avg Gain (EOD)
🚀
+4.62%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 39.5%
Avg Gain: -0.30%
Avg Winner: +1.46%
Avg Loser: -1.59%
Best: +12.70%
Worst: -7.04%
Trades: 90/126

15MIN

Win Rate: 44.3%
Avg Gain: -0.17%
Avg Winner: +2.40%
Avg Loser: -2.34%
Best: +42.86%
Worst: -12.68%
Trades: 101/120

30MIN

Win Rate: 46.1%
Avg Gain: -0.23%
Avg Winner: +2.67%
Avg Loser: -2.81%
Best: +28.57%
Worst: -9.72%
Trades: 105/118

60MIN

Win Rate: 43.9%
Avg Gain: -0.21%
Avg Winner: +3.26%
Avg Loser: -2.92%
Best: +20.63%
Worst: -14.69%
Trades: 100/128

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 48.2%
Avg Gain: +0.17%
Avg Winner: +4.61%
Avg Loser: -4.07%
Best: +20.17%
Worst: -16.31%
Trades: 110/115

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +4.62%
Best MFE: +48.41%
Avg Time to MFE: 128 min

On average, ARDX alerts reach +4.62% profit potential within 128 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.88%
Worst MAE: -14.74%
Avg Time to MAE: 15 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.88%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.45:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.45x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 228 alerts, ARDX typically reaches +4.62% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 3.7% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 228
Gap Up % 29.8%
Avg Gap -0.22%
Best Gap +5.63%

🏭 Sector Comparison: PHARMACEUTICAL PREPARATIONS

How ARDX compares to 381 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
ARDX: -0.30% Sector: -0.32% +0.02%
EOD Gain
ARDX: +0.17% Sector: +4480411.22% -4480411.05%
Avg MFE
ARDX: +4.62% Sector: +7.56% -2.94%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical ARDX alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-11-11 09:27:58 $4.94 -2.02% -5.04% -9.72% -3.24% -0.91% +0.61% -1.21% -0.91% LOSS
2024-11-08 09:26:34 $5.88 -4.42% -12.68% -8.42% -12.84% -13.78% +0.85% -3.03% -1.87% LOSS
2024-11-06 09:29:38 $5.85 -1.71% -2.82% -1.71% -0.68% +10.94% +11.45% -2.99% +0.34% LOSS
2024-11-01 09:28:45 $5.99 +2.09% +6.66% +3.92% +3.42% +1.67% +7.51% -1.84% - WIN
2024-08-05 09:26:25 $5.38 +4.66% +2.23% +4.67% +4.55% +8.36% +12.55% +0.37% +1.30% WIN
2024-08-02 09:26:46 $5.7 -0.47% +1.40% +3.16% +2.46% +6.14% +8.42% -6.67% -0.96% LOSS
2024-07-03 09:26:03 $5.58 -4.84% -6.63% -7.62% -5.38% -4.66% -0.36% -2.69% -0.90% LOSS
2024-07-02 09:29:10 $6.28 - -2.31% -3.42% -3.90% -15.92% +3.02% -1.75% -0.48% -
2024-06-20 09:27:35 $5.99 -1.84% -2.50% -1.84% -2.67% -1.67% -0.17% -1.17% -0.33% LOSS
2024-05-03 09:29:34 $8.29 -3.14% -3.02% +0.96% +2.11% +5.19% +10.13% -3.74% +0.84% LOSS
2024-04-10 09:25:03 $6.85 +1.61% +1.75% +2.04% +2.04% +4.09% +4.31% - +0.88% WIN
2024-04-04 09:28:44 $7.39 +0.68% +1.42% -0.41% -0.34% -3.11% +2.44% - +0.14% WIN
2024-03-25 09:26:36 $7.69 +0.39% +0.59% +1.43% +0.98% +0.13% +2.02% -0.52% - WIN
2024-03-15 09:29:20 $7.99 +1.38% +1.63% +1.75% +1.19% +1.38% +3.00% -0.13% +0.38% WIN
2024-03-12 09:27:35 $8.56 -0.93% -2.00% -0.88% -0.47% -1.64% +1.28% -2.69% -0.58% LOSS
2024-02-23 09:28:13 $8.2 +4.42% +5.30% +4.15% +3.84% +5.85% +10.79% -0.49% -0.49% WIN
2024-02-22 09:25:25 $8.76 -1.03% -0.11% -1.71% -2.74% +0.68% +1.43% -3.08% -0.46% LOSS
2024-02-21 09:26:34 $8.56 +0.23% +0.12% -1.52% -1.40% -0.70% +0.82% -2.10% -0.93% WIN
2024-02-20 09:28:53 $9.02 +0.31% -1.00% -2.22% -2.11% -5.21% +0.44% -1.31% -0.22% WIN
2024-02-13 09:27:18 $9.43 -2.99% -3.13% -2.81% -2.66% -6.04% -0.32% -4.56% -1.06% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 48.2% Baseline on ARDX

The 48.2% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push ARDX's performance to 75%+.

Optimize ARDX Strategy →

Why Analyze ARDX with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for ARDX. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, ARDX historically offers an average upside of +4.62% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 ARDX Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 48.2%, ARDX shows neutral behavior, suggesting the need for additional volume confirmation.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show ARDX performs best on the EOD (End of Day) timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.17%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.