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$WEN +28.78% — what the base rate says

$WEN +28.78% — what the base rate says

Wednesday afternoon, and the retail desk is treating fast-food executive shuffles like tech breakthroughs. The Wendy's Company ($WEN) is trading up +28.78% today simply because they hired a new CFO. Apparently, changing the person who signs the checks instantly creates over $300 million in market cap.

On the other side of the tape, reality is hitting Hertz ($HTZ). The stock is down -38.74% after announcing they are dumping $100M of new common stock and $300M in high-interest debt to keep the lights on.

Historically, buying catalyst-driven gap-ups of 20% or more has been an expensive hobby. Out of 4,898 similar historical setups, they closed red 62% of the time.

62% end in the red. That's the post.

What the data showed

  • $WEN +28.78% The Wendy's Company · closed red 62% · green 37% (n=4,898) mcap $1.3B · float 173M shares · sector: RETAIL-EATING & DRINKING PLACES
  • $JACK +13.90% Jack in the Box Inc. · closed red 59% · green 40% (n=11,458) mcap $244M · float 21M shares · sector: RETAIL-EATING PLACES
  • $ICLR +12.27% ICON Public Limited Company · closed red 59% · green 40% (n=11,458) mcap $9.1B · float 76M shares
  • $NTRA +12.14% Natera, Inc. · closed red 59% · green 40% (n=11,458) mcap $33.1B · float 135M shares · sector: SERVICES-MEDICAL LABORATORIES
  • $MMYT +10.65% MakeMyTrip Limited · closed red 59% · green 40% (n=11,458) mcap $4.4B · float 82M shares
  • $EXPE +8.80% Expedia Group, Inc. mcap $28.9B · float 116M shares · sector: TRANSPORTATION SERVICES
  • $PHM +8.06% PulteGroup, Inc. mcap $24.2B · float 189M shares · sector: OPERATIVE BUILDERS
  • $DHI +7.19% D.R. Horton, Inc. mcap $44.8B · float 252M shares · sector: OPERATIVE BUILDERS
  • $ITB +6.36% iShares US Home Construction ETF
  • $GDC +6.22% GD Culture Group Limited mcap $1M · float 20M shares · sector: WHOLESALE-METALS & MINERALS (NO PETROLEUM)
  • $HTZ -38.74% Hertz Global Holdings, Inc. · closed red 59% · green 40% (n=865) mcap $1.6B · float 134M shares · sector: SERVICES-AUTO RENTAL & LEASING (NO DRIVERS)
  • $RCT -21.10% RedCloud Holdings plc · closed red 56% · green 43% (n=2,153) mcap $38M · float 14M shares
  • $NG -14.40% NovaGold Resources Inc. · closed red 53% · green 46% (n=6,903) mcap $3.4B · float 330M shares · sector: GOLD AND SILVER ORES
  • $VRAX -13.49% Virax Biolabs Group Limited · closed red 53% · green 46% (n=6,903) mcap $1M · float 19M shares
  • $SYRE -13.32% Spyre Therapeutics, Inc. · closed red 53% · green 46% (n=6,903) mcap $7.7B · float 92M shares · sector: PHARMACEUTICAL PREPARATIONS
  • $BOT -12.92% Robostrategy, Inc. · closed red 53% · green 46% (n=6,903) float 10M shares
  • $WOR -10.85% Worthington Enterprises, Inc. · closed red 53% · green 46% (n=6,903) mcap $3.0B · float 31M shares · sector: STEEL WORKS, BLAST FURNACES & ROLLING & FINISHING MILLS
  • $FLS -9.23% Flowserve Corporation
  • $SLV -7.82% iShares Silver Trust ETF float 384M shares · sector: COMMODITY CONTRACTS BROKERS & DEALERS
  • $CLSK -7.59% CleanSpark, Inc. mcap $4.4B · float 247M shares · sector: FINANCE SERVICES

Don't guess how often CFO hires or massive dilution announcements reverse their intraday moves. Pull the historical sample on FILTRIX.net to see the actual win rates before you trade. Discipline > FOMO

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