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INCY Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 30 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-07 → 2024-06-18

⚠️ Small sample size (30 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Nov 03, 1993 🔗 www.incyte.com
💰 Market Cap: $20.02B 👥 Employees: 2,617
Incyte focuses on the discovery and development of small-molecule drugs. The firm's leading drug, Jakafi, treats two types of rare blood cancer and graft versus host disease and is partnered with Novartis. Incyte's other marketed drugs include rheumatoid arthritis treatment Olumiant (licensed to Lilly), and oncology drugs Iclusig (chronic myeloid leukemia), Pemazyre (cholangiocarcinoma), Tabrecta (lung cancer), and Monjuvi (diffuse large B-cell lymphoma). The firm's first dermatology product, Opzelura, was approved in 2021 for atopic dermatitis and 2022 for vitiligo. Incyte's pipeline includes a broad array of oncology and dermatology programs.
📊
30
Total Alerts
🎯
50.0%
Win Rate (15MIN)
💰
+0.26%
Avg Gain (15MIN)
🚀
+1.20%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 46.7%
Avg Gain: +0.03%
Avg Winner: +0.83%
Avg Loser: -0.66%
Best: +1.77%
Worst: -2.32%
Trades: 14/16

15MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: +0.26%
Avg Winner: +1.27%
Avg Loser: -0.75%
Best: +3.11%
Worst: -1.63%
Trades: 15/15

30MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: +0.21%
Avg Winner: +1.20%
Avg Loser: -0.78%
Best: +2.80%
Worst: -1.85%
Trades: 15/15

60MIN

Win Rate: 43.3%
Avg Gain: +0.13%
Avg Winner: +1.32%
Avg Loser: -0.83%
Best: +3.05%
Worst: -2.08%
Trades: 13/16

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 48.3%
Avg Gain: +0.04%
Avg Winner: +1.21%
Avg Loser: -1.05%
Best: +2.31%
Worst: -2.45%
Trades: 14/15

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +1.20%
Best MFE: +4.42%
Avg Time to MFE: 109 min

On average, INCY alerts reach +1.20% profit potential within 109 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.35%
Worst MAE: -1.93%
Avg Time to MAE: 17 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.35%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

3.48:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 3.48x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 30 alerts, INCY typically reaches +1.20% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.0% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 30
Gap Up % 53.3%
Avg Gap +0.09%
Best Gap +1.67%

🏭 Sector Comparison: SERVICES-COMMERCIAL PHYSICAL & BIOLOGICAL RESEARCH

How INCY compares to 12 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
INCY: -0.00% Sector: -0.11% +0.11%
EOD Gain
INCY: +0.04% Sector: +146.46% -146.42%
Avg MFE
INCY: +1.13% Sector: +9.42% -8.29%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical INCY alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-06-18 09:25:20 $62.45 +0.56% +2.29% +2.16% +0.81% -1.62% +2.96% +0.26% +0.32% WIN
2024-06-17 09:28:09 $62.06 -0.14% -0.44% +0.14% -0.45% +1.02% +1.24% -0.93% -0.48% LOSS
2024-06-11 09:27:52 $59.37 -0.03% -0.15% -0.99% -1.89% +0.19% +0.49% -0.43% +0.07% LOSS
2024-06-10 09:25:18 $59.16 +0.05% -0.03% -0.12% -0.14% +0.41% +0.54% -0.37% -0.25% WIN
2024-05-15 09:27:05 $57.38 -0.10% -0.33% -0.66% -0.68% -0.58% +0.10% -0.61% +0.09% LOSS
2024-05-13 09:28:50 $56.97 +0.81% +3.11% +1.83% +0.51% +1.11% +3.44% -0.61% +0.05% WIN
2023-12-21 09:29:00 $61.04 +0.13% +0.05% +0.20% +0.85% +1.06% +1.28% -0.21% +0.18% WIN
2023-11-30 09:28:00 $53.85 +0.09% +0.19% +0.15% - +0.91% +1.26% -0.42% +0.15% WIN
2023-11-01 09:25:00 $53.93 +0.58% -1.24% -1.21% -0.50% +0.82% +1.21% -1.93% +0.13% WIN
2023-09-18 09:28:00 $60.0 -2.32% -0.52% -0.81% -0.67% -0.82% +0.15% -0.03% -0.28% LOSS
2023-08-30 09:28:00 $65.51 -1.11% -1.02% -0.46% -0.41% -0.40% -0.11% -1.39% -1.34% LOSS
2023-08-17 09:29:00 $64.73 +0.27% +0.40% +0.02% +0.15% -0.80% +0.45% -0.15% +0.09% WIN
2023-08-14 09:28:00 $65.4 +0.73% +0.23% +0.46% +1.14% -0.24% +1.15% +0.09% +0.47% WIN
2023-06-28 09:25:00 $61.99 -0.39% -1.11% -0.85% -1.43% -1.68% -0.02% -0.47% -0.02% LOSS
2023-05-18 09:27:00 $65.23 -1.26% -1.63% -1.85% -2.08% -2.45% -0.74% -1.17% -1.01% LOSS
2023-05-10 09:28:00 $64.99 -0.07% -0.52% -0.69% -0.90% -1.65% +0.02% -0.22% -0.05% LOSS
2023-02-14 09:27:00 $80.08 -0.35% -0.55% -0.24% -0.28% -0.90% +0.17% +0.09% +0.15% LOSS
2023-02-10 09:27:00 $81.0 -1.01% -0.79% -1.04% -1.05% -2.15% +0.10% -0.63% - LOSS
2023-02-09 09:28:00 $80.5 +0.53% +0.52% +0.88% +0.11% +0.92% +1.23% -0.04% +0.37% WIN
2023-02-08 09:27:00 $80.98 -1.11% -1.45% -1.25% -0.31% -0.59% +0.20% -1.89% -0.02% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 50.0% Baseline on INCY

The 50.0% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push INCY's performance to 75%+.

Optimize INCY Strategy →

Why Analyze INCY with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for INCY. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, INCY historically offers an average upside of +1.20% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 INCY Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 50.0%, INCY shows neutral behavior, suggesting the need for additional volume confirmation.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show INCY performs best on the 15MIN timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.26%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.