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LUMN Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 172 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-13 → 2025-02-05

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Oct 24, 1978 🔗 www.lumen.com
💰 Market Cap: $8.79B 👥 Employees: 24,000
Lumen Technologies is one of the largest telecommunications carriers serving global enterprises. The merger with Level 3 in 2017 and the 2022 divestiture of much of its local phone business in rural areas and small markets shifted the company's operations away from the legacy consumer business and toward enterprises services, which account for about 75% of revenue. Lumen offers businesses a full suite of communications services, providing colocation and data center services, data transportation, phone service, and internet access. Lumen has announced the sale of its remaining consumer fiber network to AT&T, which will further shift its focus to enterprise customers.
📊
172
Total Alerts
🎯
49.4%
Win Rate (30MIN)
💰
+0.07%
Avg Gain (30MIN)
🚀
+5.01%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 39.0%
Avg Gain: -0.24%
Avg Winner: +1.44%
Avg Loser: -1.39%
Best: +6.41%
Worst: -8.48%
Trades: 67/100

15MIN

Win Rate: 44.2%
Avg Gain: -0.14%
Avg Winner: +2.34%
Avg Loser: -2.18%
Best: +13.53%
Worst: -13.16%
Trades: 76/93

30MIN

Win Rate: 49.4%
Avg Gain: +0.07%
Avg Winner: +2.92%
Avg Loser: -2.78%
Best: +19.91%
Worst: -17.65%
Trades: 85/85

60MIN

Win Rate: 44.2%
Avg Gain: -0.14%
Avg Winner: +3.75%
Avg Loser: -3.41%
Best: +22.41%
Worst: -21.91%
Trades: 76/91

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 46.5%
Avg Gain: +0.49%
Avg Winner: +5.62%
Avg Loser: -4.09%
Best: +31.53%
Worst: -28.98%
Trades: 80/89

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +5.01%
Best MFE: +69.46%
Avg Time to MFE: 122 min

On average, LUMN alerts reach +5.01% profit potential within 122 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.85%
Worst MAE: -24.26%
Avg Time to MAE: 11 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.85%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.71:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.71x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 172 alerts, LUMN typically reaches +5.01% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 4.0% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 172
Gap Up % 33.7%
Avg Gap -0.16%
Best Gap +4.63%

🏭 Sector Comparison: TELEPHONE COMMUNICATIONS (NO RADIOTELEPHONE)

How LUMN compares to 7 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
LUMN: -0.24% Sector: +0.01% -0.25%
EOD Gain
LUMN: +0.49% Sector: +0.15% +0.35%
Avg MFE
LUMN: +5.01% Sector: +1.93% +3.08%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical LUMN alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-05 09:25:34 $5.47 - -13.16% -5.30% -11.88% -9.14% +1.28% - +0.27% -
2025-01-28 09:29:49 $5.02 -3.04% -4.68% -4.28% -2.09% +1.20% +3.88% -5.28% +0.40% LOSS
2025-01-27 09:28:58 $5.46 -3.66% -2.47% -5.31% -4.67% -8.97% +1.65% -1.10% +0.73% LOSS
2024-12-20 09:28:09 $6.02 -0.17% +1.91% +4.57% +5.07% -1.66% +7.31% -2.82% -1.99% LOSS
2024-12-19 09:27:48 $5.85 +2.05% +2.31% +1.20% -0.77% +3.59% +7.01% -1.79% +0.51% WIN
2024-12-17 09:27:40 $6.15 -0.00% -0.45% -1.06% -1.63% -2.60% +0.57% -0.81% -0.16% LOSS
2024-11-25 09:29:38 $8.0 +0.02% +0.88% -1.00% +0.06% -2.75% +1.21% -1.62% -0.50% WIN
2024-11-19 09:29:55 $7.84 -0.77% -3.32% -4.85% -5.87% -1.28% +1.66% -2.81% +0.77% LOSS
2024-11-13 09:27:11 $9.28 +0.22% -0.92% -0.47% -1.51% -4.20% +1.62% +0.11% +1.62% WIN
2024-11-12 09:26:29 $9.93 +0.30% -1.56% -1.91% -2.77% -7.05% +1.01% -0.96% -0.91% WIN
2024-11-11 09:29:47 $9.78 -0.56% -0.97% -0.20% -1.18% +3.48% +5.62% -1.84% +0.72% LOSS
2024-11-08 09:27:49 $9.1 +1.91% +2.82% +3.90% +3.30% +5.38% +8.13% +0.33% +1.43% WIN
2024-11-07 09:25:44 $8.79 +2.28% +1.71% +0.97% +2.06% +4.55% +6.60% -1.37% +0.11% WIN
2024-11-06 09:29:26 $7.32 -2.07% +5.12% +7.31% +14.07% +23.22% +25.68% -4.64% +0.96% LOSS
2024-11-05 09:29:59 $7.48 +1.87% +2.01% +1.47% -1.31% +1.74% +4.14% -0.80% +0.13% WIN
2024-11-04 09:28:51 $6.95 +3.17% +5.47% +7.77% +8.35% +7.63% +9.86% -0.99% +0.14% WIN
2024-11-01 09:25:25 $6.45 +0.78% +1.55% +1.94% +1.42% +8.53% +9.46% +0.15% +0.78% WIN
2024-10-30 09:25:04 $6.72 -1.01% -0.73% -1.86% -1.56% -0.45% +1.64% -3.27% -0.15% LOSS
2024-10-29 09:28:51 $6.33 -0.79% -0.16% +0.87% +1.03% +4.27% +4.58% -1.58% -0.24% LOSS
2024-10-28 09:27:09 $6.5 -0.62% +0.77% +0.38% -0.38% -1.38% +1.23% -0.77% +0.31% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 49.4% Baseline on LUMN

The 49.4% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push LUMN's performance to 75%+.

Optimize LUMN Strategy →

Why Analyze LUMN with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for LUMN. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, LUMN historically offers an average upside of +5.01% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 LUMN Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 49.4%, LUMN shows neutral behavior, suggesting the need for additional volume confirmation.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show LUMN performs best on the 30MIN timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.07%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.