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MSGE Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 3 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2023-06-23 → 2023-10-06

⚠️ Small sample size (3 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp. SERVICES-MISCELLANEOUS AMUSEMENT & RECREATION (SIC 7990)
📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Apr 17, 2023 🔗 www.msgentertainment.com
💰 Market Cap: $2.89B 👥 Employees: 6,600
Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp provides live entertainment, delivering unforgettable experiences while forging deep connections with diverse and passionate audiences. The company's portfolio includes a collection of world-renowned venues - New York's Madison Square Garden, The Theater at Madison Square Garden, Radio City Music Hall, and Beacon Theatre; and The Chicago Theatre - that showcase a broad array of sporting events, concerts, family shows, and special events for millions of guests annually. In addition, the company features the original production, the Christmas Spectacular Starring the Radio City Rockettes, which has been a holiday tradition for 89 years.
📊
3
Total Alerts
🎯
33.3%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
-0.30%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+1.30%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 33.3%
Avg Gain: -0.30%
Avg Winner: +0.18%
Avg Loser: -0.54%
Best: +0.18%
Worst: -0.75%
Trades: 1/2

15MIN

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -0.52%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -0.52%
Best: -0.24%
Worst: -0.90%
Trades: 0/3

30MIN

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -0.88%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -0.88%
Best: -0.84%
Worst: -0.95%
Trades: 0/3

60MIN

Win Rate: 33.3%
Avg Gain: -0.42%
Avg Winner: +0.02%
Avg Loser: -0.63%
Best: +0.02%
Worst: -0.75%
Trades: 1/2

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 33.3%
Avg Gain: -1.03%
Avg Winner: +0.03%
Avg Loser: -1.56%
Best: +0.03%
Worst: -1.74%
Trades: 1/2

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +1.30%
Best MFE: +2.10%
Avg Time to MFE: 148 min

On average, MSGE alerts reach +1.30% profit potential within 148 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.63%
Worst MAE: -2.13%
Avg Time to MAE: 22 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.63%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

0.8:1

Challenging risk/reward - consider tighter stops.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 3 alerts, MSGE typically reaches +1.30% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.0% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 3
Gap Up % 0.0%
Avg Gap -0.31%
Best Gap -0.30%

🏭 Sector Comparison: SERVICES-MISCELLANEOUS AMUSEMENT & RECREATION

How MSGE compares to 8 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
MSGE: -0.30% Sector: +0.00% -0.31%
EOD Gain
MSGE: -1.03% Sector: +7.84% -8.86%
Avg MFE
MSGE: +1.30% Sector: +2.23% -0.93%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical MSGE alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2023-10-06 09:27:00 $32.77 -0.34% -0.24% -0.84% -0.52% +0.03% +1.25% -1.10% -0.34% LOSS
2023-09-20 09:29:00 $33.3 -0.75% -0.90% -0.86% -0.75% -1.74% +0.54% -1.65% -0.30% LOSS
2023-06-23 09:29:00 $32.8 +0.18% -0.41% -0.95% +0.02% -1.37% +2.10% -2.13% -0.30% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ MSGE Shows Negative Expectancy

With 33.3% win rate and -0.30% average gain, MSGE alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider MSGE for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze MSGE with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for MSGE. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, MSGE historically offers an average upside of +1.30% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 MSGE Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 33.3%, MSGE shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests MSGE may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: MSGE shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 5MIN at -0.30%). This suggests MSGE is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.