Latest signal:
UPS Stock Analysis
Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 35 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-10 → 2025-02-10
⚠️ Small sample size (35 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.
🏢 Company Profile
📈 Performance by Timeframe
5MIN
15MIN
30MIN
60MIN
EOD (End of Day)
🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)
Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.
📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)
On average, UPS alerts reach +1.26% profit potential within 81 minutes.
📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)
Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.59%.
⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio
Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.13x the typical drawdown.
💡 Trading Insight: Based on 35 alerts, UPS typically reaches +1.26% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.0% to capture most of the move.
🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)
🏭 Sector Comparison: TRUCKING & COURIER SERVICES (NO AIR)
How UPS compares to 2 other tickers in the same sector.
📋 Last 20 Alerts
Historical UPS alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.
| Date | Time | Price | 5min | 15min | 30min | 60min | EOD | MFE | MAE | Gap | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-10 | 09:25:26 | $113.88 | -0.20% | -0.54% | +0.17% | +0.26% | +0.25% | +0.78% | -0.98% | -0.32% | LOSS |
| 2025-02-03 | 09:27:03 | $112.18 | +0.11% | -1.60% | -2.16% | -0.73% | -0.79% | +0.58% | +0.09% | +0.13% | WIN |
| 2025-01-31 | 09:28:25 | $115.12 | -0.10% | -0.02% | +0.73% | +0.03% | -0.77% | +1.28% | -0.81% | -0.10% | LOSS |
| 2025-01-30 | 09:25:03 | $114.89 | +2.11% | -0.98% | -1.10% | -2.95% | +0.01% | +2.69% | +0.10% | +2.18% | WIN |
| 2024-12-20 | 09:25:30 | $123.83 | - | -0.03% | -0.61% | -0.40% | +1.49% | +2.41% | -1.47% | +0.17% | - |
| 2024-12-16 | 09:28:47 | $128.54 | +0.46% | +0.93% | +0.76% | +0.55% | +0.01% | +1.37% | -0.24% | +0.03% | WIN |
| 2024-11-11 | 09:27:54 | $132.67 | +0.20% | +0.36% | +0.76% | +0.38% | -0.80% | +0.80% | -0.05% | -0.01% | WIN |
| 2024-10-24 | 09:29:39 | $145.03 | -1.05% | -3.00% | -4.82% | -5.16% | -4.61% | -0.01% | -2.01% | -0.02% | LOSS |
| 2024-10-03 | 09:27:43 | $132.54 | -0.27% | -0.83% | -0.97% | -0.97% | -1.37% | +0.04% | +0.04% | +0.04% | LOSS |
| 2024-10-01 | 09:26:13 | $136.78 | -0.57% | -1.81% | -2.33% | -3.22% | -2.57% | -0.18% | -0.20% | -0.35% | LOSS |
| 2024-09-20 | 09:27:01 | $128.78 | -0.61% | -0.96% | -1.08% | -1.04% | -0.14% | +0.33% | -1.74% | -0.22% | LOSS |
| 2024-09-11 | 09:25:15 | $130.0 | -0.70% | -1.50% | -2.08% | -2.51% | -1.15% | -0.56% | -0.72% | -0.56% | LOSS |
| 2024-09-09 | 09:25:45 | $128.0 | +0.09% | +0.05% | +0.66% | +0.43% | +0.69% | +1.34% | -0.30% | -0.16% | WIN |
| 2024-09-06 | 09:28:54 | $128.0 | -0.11% | -0.12% | -0.03% | -0.24% | -0.36% | +0.11% | -0.39% | -0.26% | LOSS |
| 2024-09-05 | 09:28:42 | $129.15 | -0.46% | -0.15% | -0.48% | -0.67% | -1.35% | +0.12% | -0.14% | +0.11% | LOSS |
| 2024-07-23 | 09:27:26 | $130.0 | -0.46% | -1.54% | -1.92% | -1.88% | -1.78% | +1.74% | -0.88% | +0.11% | LOSS |
| 2024-04-23 | 09:25:58 | $143.25 | +2.01% | +4.03% | +3.01% | +2.82% | +3.92% | +4.53% | -0.31% | +1.92% | WIN |
| 2024-04-01 | 09:28:29 | $150.13 | -1.00% | -1.44% | -1.46% | -2.20% | -1.67% | -0.01% | -0.22% | -0.66% | LOSS |
| 2024-03-26 | 09:26:50 | $157.95 | -0.30% | -2.73% | -2.63% | -3.62% | -8.96% | +0.03% | -0.53% | -0.38% | LOSS |
| 2024-02-06 | 09:28:23 | $141.76 | +0.56% | +1.53% | +1.74% | +1.69% | +2.93% | +3.29% | -0.29% | -0.04% | WIN |
Table Metrics Explained:
- 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
- MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
- MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
- Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
- Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise
⚠️ UPS Shows Negative Expectancy
With 38.2% win rate and -0.67% average gain, UPS alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider UPS for short-selling strategies.
📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →Why Analyze UPS with FILTRIX?
🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation
We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for UPS. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.
💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis
How much is left in the move? On winning days, UPS historically offers an average upside of +1.26% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.
📊 UPS Momentum Personality
With a baseline win rate of 38.2%, UPS shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests UPS may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.
⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing
⚠️ Caution Advised: UPS shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: EOD (End of Day) at -0.67%). This suggests UPS is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.