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ZTO Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 72 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-04 → 2025-02-12

⚠️ Small sample size (72 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. American Depositary Shares, each representing one Class A ordinary share
📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Oct 27, 2016 🔗 ir.zto.com
💰 Market Cap: $17.00B 👥 Employees: 23,913
ZTO Express is China's largest express delivery company by parcel volume, with a volume share of 19.4% in 2024. It operates a network partner model where it provides line-haul transportation and sorting services, while its local network partners provide first-mile pickup and last-mile delivery services under the ZTO brand name. Headquartered in Shanghai, the company was founded in 2002 by Meisong Lai, who remains chair, CEO, and its major shareholder with 78% voting rights as of March 31, 2025. ZTO's strategic shareholder is leading China e-commerce company Alibaba Group with around an 8.9% interest.
📊
72
Total Alerts
🎯
52.8%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
-0.01%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+1.42%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 52.8%
Avg Gain: -0.01%
Avg Winner: +0.82%
Avg Loser: -1.00%
Best: +3.53%
Worst: -4.21%
Trades: 38/32

15MIN

Win Rate: 51.4%
Avg Gain: -0.05%
Avg Winner: +0.99%
Avg Loser: -1.18%
Best: +3.19%
Worst: -5.59%
Trades: 37/34

30MIN

Win Rate: 44.4%
Avg Gain: -0.35%
Avg Winner: +0.97%
Avg Loser: -1.44%
Best: +3.41%
Worst: -7.39%
Trades: 32/39

60MIN

Win Rate: 43.1%
Avg Gain: -0.19%
Avg Winner: +1.16%
Avg Loser: -1.22%
Best: +4.03%
Worst: -4.91%
Trades: 31/41

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: +0.01%
Avg Winner: +1.20%
Avg Loser: -1.19%
Best: +3.78%
Worst: -4.18%
Trades: 36/36

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +1.42%
Best MFE: +4.87%
Avg Time to MFE: 78 min

On average, ZTO alerts reach +1.42% profit potential within 78 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.07%
Worst MAE: -10.07%
Avg Time to MAE: 5 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.07%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

1.33:1

Good risk/reward - favorable for momentum trading.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 72 alerts, ZTO typically reaches +1.42% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.1% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 72
Gap Up % 45.8%
Avg Gap -0.14%
Best Gap +2.48%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical ZTO alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-12 09:26:49 $19.16 +1.85% +2.32% +1.96% +1.91% +2.51% +2.73% +0.26% +0.89% WIN
2025-02-07 09:26:16 $19.25 +0.62% -0.52% -0.10% -0.10% -0.10% +0.88% +0.21% +0.36% WIN
2025-01-23 09:28:17 $18.44 +0.38% +0.41% +1.06% +0.73% +0.11% +1.25% - +0.38% WIN
2025-01-06 09:26:13 $19.53 -1.51% -2.25% -2.23% -2.33% -3.17% -0.05% -1.28% -1.74% LOSS
2024-11-05 09:27:46 $23.06 +0.82% +0.52% +0.37% +0.13% -0.39% +1.78% +0.48% +0.52% WIN
2024-10-04 09:25:16 $27.24 +0.04% +0.29% -0.99% -0.20% -0.92% +0.95% -0.88% -0.88% WIN
2024-10-02 09:25:34 $26.93 -0.50% -0.82% -1.15% -1.08% +0.11% +0.71% -0.11% +0.22% LOSS
2024-09-26 09:26:13 $23.5 +3.53% +3.19% +1.49% +1.64% +1.87% +4.85% +0.43% +0.72% WIN
2024-09-09 09:25:27 $21.57 - +0.09% +0.37% +0.16% +1.48% +2.06% -0.88% -0.28% -
2024-09-03 09:28:48 $22.3 -0.67% +0.63% -0.18% +0.02% -0.67% +1.17% -1.75% -0.81% LOSS
2024-07-02 09:29:27 $20.71 -0.02% -0.22% +0.31% -0.10% -0.68% +0.82% -0.92% -0.48% LOSS
2024-06-14 09:27:55 $22.47 -0.71% +0.27% +0.18% -0.38% -0.04% +0.58% -1.02% - LOSS
2024-05-30 09:26:14 $23.83 -0.23% -0.69% -0.88% -0.97% +0.13% +0.71% -0.13% +0.34% LOSS
2024-05-17 09:27:36 $23.87 +0.38% +0.67% +0.88% +1.82% +3.02% +3.62% +0.04% +0.25% WIN
2024-05-16 09:25:13 $23.65 -0.85% -3.59% -3.81% -1.50% -0.30% +1.14% -5.92% -0.55% LOSS
2024-05-03 09:29:47 $21.62 +0.18% -0.81% -0.60% -0.56% -0.65% +0.39% -0.32% +0.05% WIN
2024-04-23 09:29:27 $20.1 +0.65% +0.90% +0.22% +0.25% +0.70% +0.97% -0.07% +0.60% WIN
2024-04-18 09:26:31 $19.74 +0.08% -0.08% +0.68% +0.23% +1.32% +1.37% -0.41% +0.20% WIN
2024-04-16 09:26:44 $19.29 +0.80% +0.41% -0.16% +0.47% +0.36% +1.09% +0.23% +0.31% WIN
2024-04-11 09:25:24 $20.45 +0.56% -0.07% +0.10% -0.81% -1.37% +0.59% -0.15% -0.10% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ ZTO Shows Negative Expectancy

Despite a 52.8% win rate, ZTO has -0.01% average expectancy because losses outweigh wins. Use the app to find filters that improve the win size or reduce loss size, making ZTO profitable.

🔧 Fix ZTO Risk/Reward →

Why Analyze ZTO with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for ZTO. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, ZTO historically offers an average upside of +1.42% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 ZTO Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 52.8%, ZTO shows negative expectancy despite winning more often - average losses (-1.00%) outweigh average wins (+0.82%). This suggests the need for tighter stops or better entry timing.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: ZTO shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 5MIN at -0.01%). This suggests ZTO is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.