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$CPOP -8.56% — what the base rate says

$CPOP -8.56% — what the base rate says

Tuesday's lunch break presents the usual mid-week theater of distraction.

First, $SKIN spikes 41% after an FDA clearance for treating periorbital wrinkles. A real healthcare milestone. Too bad history shows that chasing a 30% gap-up on a medical device catalyst closes red 65% of the time across similar setups.

Then we have $BJDX, a $1M micro-cap gapping up 28% on zero news. Retail is piling in blind, hoping to catch a legendary low-float squeeze. Out of 3,671 historical instances of low-float gap-ups on zero news, the median intraday return is -8.17%, with 68% closing red.

If you are buying the $BJDX mystery pump to pay for your $SKIN wrinkle treatment, you are paying the ultimate lack-of-discipline premium. Close the laptop and go eat your sandwich.

What the data showed

  • $CPOP -8.56% Pop Culture Group Co., Ltd mcap $25M · float 2M shares
  • $CCHH -23.41% CCH Holdings Ltd · closed red 56% · green 43% (n=2,153) mcap $9M · float 7M shares
  • $YHC -6.41% LQR House Inc. mcap $963,616 · float 21M shares · sector: BEVERAGES
  • $SUGP -0.76% SU Group Holdings Limited mcap $6M · float 4M shares
  • $INTC -8.85% Intel Corporation mcap $604.9B · float 4.0B shares · sector: SEMICONDUCTORS & RELATED DEVICES
  • $AAL -2.20% American Airlines Group Inc. mcap $11.9B · float 650M shares · sector: AIR TRANSPORTATION, SCHEDULED
  • $GPUS -7.75% Hyperscale Data, Inc. mcap $65M · float 480M shares · sector: OIL & GAS FIELD MACHINERY & EQUIPMENT
  • $NOK -4.32% Nokia Oyj mcap $67.4B · float 5.7B shares · sector: Radio & Tv Broadcasting & Communications Equipment
  • $SPCX -4.91% Space Exploration Technologies Corp.
  • $RIVN -14.75% Rivian Automotive, Inc. · closed red 53% · green 46% (n=6,903) mcap $25.0B · float 756M shares · sector: MOTOR VEHICLES & PASSENGER CAR BODIES

Before you chase the next medical device clearance or low-float mystery gap-up, backtest the setup's historical win rate on FILTRIX.net. Let the historical sample sizes protect your capital. Discipline > FOMO

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