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AAL Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 720 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-03 → 2025-02-14

🏢 Company Profile

American Airlines Group Inc. AIR TRANSPORTATION, SCHEDULED (SIC 4512)
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Jun 01, 1972 🔗 www.aa.com
💰 Market Cap: $9.68B 👥 Employees: 136,900
American Airlines is the world's largest airline by aircraft, capacity, and scheduled revenue passenger miles. Its major US hubs are Charlotte, Chicago, Dallas/Fort Worth, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, Philadelphia, Phoenix, and Washington, D.C. It generates over 30% of US airline revenue connecting Latin America with destinations in the United States. After completing a major fleet renewal, the company has the youngest fleet of US legacy carriers.
📊
720
Total Alerts
🎯
49.3%
Win Rate (60MIN)
💰
-0.05%
Avg Gain (60MIN)
🚀
+1.78%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 48.9%
Avg Gain: +0.02%
Avg Winner: +0.57%
Avg Loser: -0.53%
Best: +4.39%
Worst: -4.91%
Trades: 352/356

15MIN

Win Rate: 47.5%
Avg Gain: -0.03%
Avg Winner: +0.92%
Avg Loser: -0.92%
Best: +7.53%
Worst: -4.73%
Trades: 342/366

30MIN

Win Rate: 46.9%
Avg Gain: -0.01%
Avg Winner: +1.17%
Avg Loser: -1.08%
Best: +5.65%
Worst: -6.79%
Trades: 338/375

60MIN

Win Rate: 49.3%
Avg Gain: -0.05%
Avg Winner: +1.23%
Avg Loser: -1.32%
Best: +7.49%
Worst: -6.06%
Trades: 355/361

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 47.8%
Avg Gain: -0.07%
Avg Winner: +1.79%
Avg Loser: -1.83%
Best: +9.93%
Worst: -10.21%
Trades: 344/364

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +1.78%
Best MFE: +12.59%
Avg Time to MFE: 120 min

On average, AAL alerts reach +1.78% profit potential within 120 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.68%
Worst MAE: -5.61%
Avg Time to MAE: 12 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.68%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.6:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.6x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 720 alerts, AAL typically reaches +1.78% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.4% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 720
Gap Up % 37.8%
Avg Gap -0.04%
Best Gap +1.37%

🏭 Sector Comparison: AIR TRANSPORTATION, SCHEDULED

How AAL compares to 8 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
AAL: +0.02% Sector: -0.01% +0.02%
EOD Gain
AAL: -0.07% Sector: -0.10% +0.03%
Avg MFE
AAL: +1.78% Sector: +1.90% -0.13%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical AAL alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-14 09:26:49 $15.81 -0.25% -0.09% -0.70% -0.70% +1.01% +1.08% -1.08% +0.16% LOSS
2025-02-13 09:26:23 $16.39 +0.52% -0.76% -0.70% -1.46% -3.97% +0.67% -0.24% -0.18% WIN
2025-02-12 09:26:08 $16.22 +0.34% +1.05% +0.96% +1.63% +0.25% +2.34% -0.12% +0.99% WIN
2025-02-11 09:29:25 $16.45 -0.70% -1.00% -0.15% -0.85% -0.24% +0.67% -1.92% -0.12% LOSS
2025-02-03 09:26:13 $16.37 +0.00% +0.24% -0.15% +0.34% +2.02% +2.75% -0.92% +0.12% LOSS
2025-01-31 09:29:50 $16.99 -0.12% -0.03% -0.09% -0.03% -0.41% +1.41% -0.47% -0.18% LOSS
2025-01-30 09:26:10 $16.93 -0.30% +0.90% +1.03% +0.10% -0.18% +1.77% -0.77% - LOSS
2025-01-28 09:27:35 $17.15 -0.90% +0.17% -0.29% +0.87% - +1.87% -1.14% -0.41% LOSS
2025-01-27 09:28:02 $16.8 +0.33% +1.40% +1.93% +1.82% +2.38% +4.40% -0.57% +0.12% WIN
2025-01-24 09:28:47 $16.86 -1.04% -0.06% +0.85% +1.39% +0.59% +2.85% -1.84% -0.09% LOSS
2025-01-23 09:28:24 $17.37 +0.14% -0.92% -2.22% -2.76% -1.96% +0.96% -3.05% -0.40% WIN
2025-01-22 09:29:27 $19.06 +0.01% -0.92% -1.08% -2.39% -2.10% +0.21% -1.36% +0.13% WIN
2025-01-21 09:29:38 $18.46 +0.11% +0.11% -0.72% -0.11% +0.98% +1.03% -1.03% +0.33% WIN
2025-01-17 09:28:47 $18.55 -0.22% -0.43% -0.89% -1.62% -1.51% +0.27% - - LOSS
2025-01-16 09:25:12 $17.98 +0.17% +0.05% -0.33% -0.39% +1.72% +1.95% -1.11% +0.22% WIN
2025-01-15 09:26:32 $18.49 -0.54% -0.70% -1.05% -1.06% -2.27% +0.38% -0.38% +0.27% LOSS
2025-01-14 09:29:26 $17.83 +0.90% +0.28% +0.08% +1.09% +2.13% +2.30% -0.22% -0.22% WIN
2025-01-13 09:26:17 $18.09 -2.27% -2.10% -2.16% -2.93% -2.71% +0.01% -0.83% -0.97% LOSS
2025-01-10 09:27:22 $17.9 +0.11% +1.73% +1.87% +1.12% +2.68% +3.07% +0.06% +0.17% WIN
2025-01-08 09:29:59 $17.55 -1.77% -2.39% -2.28% -1.68% +0.28% +0.97% -2.71% -0.11% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ AAL Shows Negative Expectancy

With 49.3% win rate and -0.05% average gain, AAL alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider AAL for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze AAL with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for AAL. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, AAL historically offers an average upside of +1.78% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 AAL Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 49.3%, AAL shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests AAL may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: AAL shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 60MIN at -0.05%). This suggests AAL is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.