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$PRCH — what the base rate says

$PRCH — what the base rate says

Porch Group's earnings surprise is going around this morning as +1,100%. The arithmetic underneath: EPS came in at $0.10 and the consensus was a loss of $0.01. Eleven cents of difference, divided by one cent of expectation. Divide anything by a penny and you get a number that needs its own font size.

The line that actually carries weight is revenue: $140.79 million, up from $115.07 million a year ago, 6.37% above estimate. That is a real beat. It is also a normal-sized one.

$PRCH is up 20.12% before the bell on the big number, not the real one. Its own record on opening gaps is short but legible: ten prior sessions that opened at least 5% higher, and 60% of them closed above the open, median +2.47% from open to close. That describes ten days. It does not quote an eleventh.

Same morning, same arithmetic, different scale: #GKOS printed a 491.67% surprise, $0.47 against an expected loss of $0.12. Twelve cents in the denominator, so the percentage is smaller while the revenue beat is far larger, $211.03 million, 25% above estimate and up 58% year over year. One of these headlines is bigger than the other, and it is not the one with more digits.

What the data showed

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Porch's ten prior gap-up sessions of 5% or more, each closed against its own open, are on FILTRIX.net. Read the sample before the surprise percentage does your thinking for you.

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