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Ticker Report — Active Last signal ·

$ARI

Trade-Ideas alerts 66.7% at 5-min n=3 2026-01-28 → 2026-07-16

⚠ SMALL SAMPLE · 3 alerts only. Statistics may have high variance — interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE FINANCE, INC. REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUSTS (SIC 6798)
📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Sep 24, 2009 🔗 www.apollocref.com
💰 Market Cap: $797.0M
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc is a real estate investment trust that originates, invests in, acquires, and manages commercial first-mortgage loans, subordinate financings, commercial mortgage-backed securities, and other real estate-related debt investments. The subordinate loans and first-mortgage loans account for the vast majority of the portfolio on a cost basis. Property types include residential, retail, healthcare, office, mixed-use, hotel, industrial, multifamily, securities, and other, with residential properties and hotels representing the highest property value. More than a third of the properties are located in New York City, with the other properties located across other regions of the United States, as well as other countries.
Total alerts
3
Trade-Ideas signal history
Win rate · 5MIN
66.7%
Best timeframe baseline
Avg gain · 5MIN
+0.36%
Per-alert expectancy
Avg MFE
+2.01%
Max potential excursion

Practice trading ARI on historical setups — browse all patterns across all tickers →

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 66.7%
Avg Gain: +0.36%
Avg Winner: +0.95%
Avg Loser: -0.80%
Best: +1.08%
Worst: -0.80%
Trades: 2/1

15MIN

Win Rate: 66.7%
Avg Gain: -0.72%
Avg Winner: +1.22%
Avg Loser: -4.60%
Best: +1.69%
Worst: -4.60%
Trades: 2/1

30MIN

Win Rate: 66.7%
Avg Gain: -0.71%
Avg Winner: +1.32%
Avg Loser: -4.78%
Best: +1.98%
Worst: -4.78%
Trades: 2/1

60MIN

Win Rate: 66.7%
Avg Gain: -0.58%
Avg Winner: +1.96%
Avg Loser: -5.67%
Best: +3.45%
Worst: -5.67%
Trades: 2/1

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 66.7%
Avg Gain: +0.01%
Avg Winner: +2.30%
Avg Loser: -4.56%
Best: +3.08%
Worst: -4.56%
Trades: 2/1

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +2.01%
Best MFE: +4.26%
Avg Time to MFE: 109 min

On average, ARI alerts reach +2.01% profit potential within 109 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.84%
Worst MAE: -2.41%
Avg Time to MAE: 4 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.84%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.41:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.41x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 3 alerts, ARI typically reaches +2.01% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.6% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 3
Gap Up % 66.7%
Avg Gap +0.37%
Best Gap +0.73%

🏭 Sector Comparison: REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUSTS

How ARI compares to 142 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
ARI: +0.36% Sector: -0.14% +0.51%
EOD Gain
ARI: +0.01% Sector: +193744.22% -193744.21%
Avg MFE
ARI: +2.01% Sector: +2.32% -0.31%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical ARI alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2026-07-16 09:25:00 $6.81 +0.81% +1.69% +1.98% +3.45% +3.08% +4.26% +0.00% +0.73% WIN
2026-06-25 09:25:00 $10.61 +1.08% +0.75% +0.66% +0.47% +1.51% +1.60% -0.09% +0.38% WIN
2026-01-28 09:25:00 $11.19 -0.80% -4.60% -4.78% -5.67% -4.56% +0.18% -2.41% +0.00% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

Beat the 66.7% Baseline on ARI

The 66.7% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and push ARI's performance to 75%+.

Optimize ARI Strategy →

Why Analyze ARI with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for ARI. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, ARI historically offers an average upside of +2.01% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 ARI Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 66.7%, ARI shows strong follow-through, making it a prime candidate for momentum strategies.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show ARI performs best on the 5MIN timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.36%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.