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MPW Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 237 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-10 → 2025-01-31

🏢 Company Profile

Medical Properties Trust, Inc. REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUSTS (SIC 6798)
📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Jul 08, 2005 🔗 www.medicalpropertiestrust.com
💰 Market Cap: $3.07B 👥 Employees: 118
Medical Properties Trust Inc acquires and develops net-leased healthcare facilities. Its investments in healthcare real estate, other loans, and any investments in tenants are considered a single reportable segment. The group's geographic areas are the United States, the United Kingdom, and All other countries.
📊
237
Total Alerts
🎯
44.3%
Win Rate (EOD)
💰
-0.28%
Avg Gain (EOD)
🚀
+2.60%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 38.0%
Avg Gain: -0.16%
Avg Winner: +1.29%
Avg Loser: -1.10%
Best: +6.02%
Worst: -4.59%
Trades: 90/139

15MIN

Win Rate: 37.1%
Avg Gain: -0.29%
Avg Winner: +1.76%
Avg Loser: -1.56%
Best: +10.00%
Worst: -7.96%
Trades: 88/143

30MIN

Win Rate: 40.1%
Avg Gain: -0.22%
Avg Winner: +1.86%
Avg Loser: -1.64%
Best: +9.25%
Worst: -7.73%
Trades: 95/139

60MIN

Win Rate: 42.2%
Avg Gain: -0.29%
Avg Winner: +2.03%
Avg Loser: -2.01%
Best: +19.09%
Worst: -9.75%
Trades: 100/135

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 44.3%
Avg Gain: -0.28%
Avg Winner: +2.93%
Avg Loser: -2.96%
Best: +15.77%
Worst: -8.91%
Trades: 105/126

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +2.60%
Best MFE: +30.71%
Avg Time to MFE: 110 min

On average, MPW alerts reach +2.60% profit potential within 110 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.16%
Worst MAE: -7.27%
Avg Time to MAE: 10 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.16%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.25:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.25x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 237 alerts, MPW typically reaches +2.60% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 2.1% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 237
Gap Up % 30.8%
Avg Gap -0.18%
Best Gap +2.78%

🏭 Sector Comparison: REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUSTS

How MPW compares to 118 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
MPW: -0.16% Sector: -0.14% -0.02%
EOD Gain
MPW: -0.28% Sector: +296893.71% -296893.99%
Avg MFE
MPW: +2.60% Sector: +2.11% +0.49%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical MPW alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-01-31 09:25:38 $4.78 +1.05% -2.20% -1.88% -1.67% -1.88% +1.26% -0.63% - WIN
2025-01-29 09:29:12 $4.65 +2.15% -2.39% -5.48% -7.85% -5.38% +3.87% - - WIN
2025-01-27 09:26:00 $4.65 +0.86% +4.41% +4.07% +2.47% - +5.16% -1.26% -0.65% WIN
2025-01-15 09:28:31 $4.11 +0.12% +1.70% +2.07% +2.05% +0.49% +2.92% -0.24% -0.24% WIN
2025-01-13 09:29:40 $3.7 -4.59% -1.22% -1.62% +0.60% +5.68% +6.48% -5.14% +0.27% LOSS
2025-01-10 09:25:05 $3.88 -2.32% -2.19% -3.16% -2.06% -1.29% - -0.26% -0.52% LOSS
2025-01-02 09:25:24 $4.0 - -0.62% -0.12% +0.12% +0.50% +1.64% -1.75% -0.75% -
2024-12-31 09:26:02 $3.72 +2.42% +3.09% +4.70% +4.52% +6.18% +7.53% -0.23% +0.27% WIN
2024-12-30 09:28:49 $3.69 -0.54% -0.54% -1.08% -0.89% +0.81% +1.35% -1.76% -0.81% LOSS
2024-12-20 09:28:13 $3.75 +1.73% +0.40% +0.27% +3.07% +2.93% +3.73% -0.80% -0.53% WIN
2024-12-17 09:29:42 $3.86 +0.65% -0.13% +0.39% +0.70% +2.85% +3.37% -1.30% +0.26% WIN
2024-12-12 09:27:00 $4.06 - +0.12% -0.49% +0.00% -0.49% +0.74% -1.23% -0.25% -
2024-12-09 09:28:50 $4.14 +1.69% +1.94% +1.23% +1.14% +0.97% +2.42% -0.25% +0.72% WIN
2024-12-02 09:28:36 $4.37 -2.74% -2.63% -2.97% -2.97% -2.06% - -0.69% -0.46% LOSS
2024-11-22 09:27:18 $4.27 -0.59% -0.02% +0.94% +0.70% +0.94% +2.58% -0.94% -0.47% LOSS
2024-11-13 09:27:20 $4.43 -0.23% - -0.23% -0.79% -0.68% +0.79% -2.03% -1.81% LOSS
2024-11-12 09:28:48 $4.53 -1.66% -1.10% -2.54% -3.08% -3.97% -0.00% -0.66% -0.66% LOSS
2024-11-11 09:29:31 $4.95 -2.42% -2.42% -2.32% -3.84% -8.48% - -1.62% - LOSS
2024-11-08 09:27:08 $4.64 +0.22% +2.05% +0.43% +3.12% +5.82% +7.53% -0.65% +0.22% WIN
2024-11-07 09:27:43 $4.44 -1.13% -3.38% -3.04% -4.62% +2.25% +4.73% -6.19% -1.35% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ MPW Shows Negative Expectancy

With 44.3% win rate and -0.28% average gain, MPW alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider MPW for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze MPW with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for MPW. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, MPW historically offers an average upside of +2.60% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 MPW Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 44.3%, MPW shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests MPW may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: MPW shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: EOD (End of Day) at -0.28%). This suggests MPW is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.