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HTH Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 2 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-05-02 → 2022-11-25

⚠️ Small sample size (2 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

HILLTOP HOLDINGS INC. STATE COMMERCIAL BANKS (SIC 6022)
📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Feb 12, 2004 🔗 www.hilltop-holdings.com
💰 Market Cap: $2.19B 👥 Employees: 3,646
Hilltop Holdings Inc is a Dallas-based financial holding company. The Company has two primary business units, PCC (banking and mortgage origination) and Securities Holdings (broker-dealer). The banking segment includes the operations of the Bank. The banking segment provides business and consumer banking services from offices located throughout Texas and generates revenue from its portfolio of earning assets. The broker-dealer segment includes the operations of Securities Holdings, which operates through its wholly owned subsidiaries Hilltop Securities, Asset Managment LLC, etc. The broker-dealer segment generates a majority of its revenues from fees and commissions earned from investment advisory and securities brokerage services. Majority of revenue is from Banking Segment.
📊
2
Total Alerts
🎯
100.0%
Win Rate (15MIN)
💰
+0.95%
Avg Gain (15MIN)
🚀
+1.73%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: +0.52%
Avg Winner: +1.21%
Avg Loser: -0.17%
Best: +1.21%
Worst: -0.17%
Trades: 1/1

15MIN

Win Rate: 100.0%
Avg Gain: +0.95%
Avg Winner: +0.95%
Avg Loser: +0.00%
Best: +1.63%
Worst: +0.27%
Trades: 2/0

30MIN

Win Rate: 100.0%
Avg Gain: +1.16%
Avg Winner: +1.16%
Avg Loser: +0.00%
Best: +1.92%
Worst: +0.40%
Trades: 2/0

60MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: +0.80%
Avg Winner: +1.76%
Avg Loser: -0.17%
Best: +1.76%
Worst: -0.17%
Trades: 1/1

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: +0.95%
Avg Winner: +2.44%
Avg Loser: -0.54%
Best: +2.44%
Worst: -0.54%
Trades: 1/1

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +1.73%
Best MFE: +3.05%
Avg Time to MFE: 202 min

On average, HTH alerts reach +1.73% profit potential within 202 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.30%
Worst MAE: -0.44%
Avg Time to MAE: 3 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.30%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

5.7:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 5.7x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 2 alerts, HTH typically reaches +1.73% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.4% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 2
Gap Up % 0.0%
Avg Gap -0.17%
Best Gap -0.17%

🏭 Sector Comparison: STATE COMMERCIAL BANKS

How HTH compares to 29 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
HTH: +0.52% Sector: -0.03% +0.55%
EOD Gain
HTH: +0.95% Sector: -0.04% +0.99%
Avg MFE
HTH: +1.73% Sector: +1.25% +0.47%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical HTH alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2022-11-25 09:25:00 $29.76 -0.17% +0.27% +0.40% -0.17% -0.54% +0.40% -0.44% -0.17% LOSS
2022-05-02 09:25:00 $29.5 +1.21% +1.63% +1.92% +1.76% +2.44% +3.05% -0.17% -0.17% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 100.0% Baseline on HTH

The 100.0% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push HTH's performance to 75%+.

Optimize HTH Strategy →

Why Analyze HTH with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for HTH. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, HTH historically offers an average upside of +1.73% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 HTH Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 100.0%, HTH shows strong follow-through, making it a prime candidate for momentum strategies.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show HTH performs best on the 15MIN timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.95%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.