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$NVDA -3.03% — what the base rate says

$NVDA -3.03% — what the base rate says

Let's inspect the math behind Volato Group ($SOAR).

A $10M nonscheduled air charter operator announces a completed merger to enter the projected $810B AI data center industry, surging 26.99% intraday.

Retail sees an AI transformation. The database sees an established pattern.

In 20 historical instances where $SOAR gapped up 5% or more, the stock closed green only 15% of the time. That is an 85% historical fade rate from the open, averaging a loss of -12.63% by the bell.

Across the broader market, 5,520 catalyst-driven gap-ups of 20% or more tell the same story: sellers win 62% of the time, producing a median intraday return of -4.79%.

Eighty-five percent of the time, this ticker punishes opening-bell chasers. Trade the base rate, not the PR.

What the data showed

  • $NVDA -3.03% NVIDIA Corporation mcap $5271.0B · float 23.3B shares · sector: SEMICONDUCTORS & RELATED DEVICES
  • $NOK -11.50% Nokia Oyj · closed red 53% · green 46% (n=7,993) mcap $62.3B · float 5.7B shares · sector: Radio & Tv Broadcasting & Communications Equipment
  • $INTC -4.83% Intel Corporation mcap $544.2B · float 4.3B shares · sector: SEMICONDUCTORS & RELATED DEVICES
  • $CTNT -83.62% Cheetah Net Supply Chain Service Inc. · closed red 62% · green 37% (n=746) mcap $4M · float 3M shares · sector: WHOLESALE-MOTOR VEHICLES & MOTOR VEHICLE PARTS & SUPPLIES
  • $PLUG -0.24% Plug Power Inc. mcap $2.9B · float 1.4B shares · sector: ELECTRICAL INDUSTRIAL APPARATUS
  • $BZ -6.48% Kanzhun Limited mcap $6.5B · float 406M shares
  • $MARA -3.05% MARA Holdings, Inc. mcap $4.6B · float 378M shares · sector: FINANCE SERVICES
  • $EU -18.72% enCore Energy Corp. · closed red 54% · green 45% (n=4,108) mcap $214M · float 191M shares · sector: MISCELLANEOUS METAL ORES

Before chasing a charter flight company's sudden pivot into artificial intelligence, pull the historical sample on FILTRIX.net. Checking how often 20% catalyst gap-ups fade takes ten seconds and protects your capital. Discipline > FOMO.

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