Let's inspect the math behind Volato Group ($SOAR).
A $10M nonscheduled air charter operator announces a completed merger to enter the projected $810B AI data center industry, surging 26.99% intraday.
Retail sees an AI transformation. The database sees an established pattern.
In 20 historical instances where $SOAR gapped up 5% or more, the stock closed green only 15% of the time. That is an 85% historical fade rate from the open, averaging a loss of -12.63% by the bell.
Across the broader market, 5,520 catalyst-driven gap-ups of 20% or more tell the same story: sellers win 62% of the time, producing a median intraday return of -4.79%.
Eighty-five percent of the time, this ticker punishes opening-bell chasers. Trade the base rate, not the PR.